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Consumer/Macro · Index Paid

Shopper-Impact / Discretionary Squeeze

Enables retailers and brands to time promotions and optimize assortment by quantifying the financial pressure on consumers' discretionary spending.

Refresh
monthly
History
10.2 yrs
Plan
Paid
46.2/ 100
Stable

United States — consumers (national)

2016-05-01 10.2 yrs · 124 pts 2026-06-27

Top drivers

core_cpi_yoy_pctwage_growth_yoy_pctraw_squeeze_gap_pct
⌁ mcp.call("adw-017") vADW-017-live-1.0
Use cases

What it unlocks

For an agent

A retail pricing agent ingests ADW-017 on each monthly refresh and compares squeeze_score to its 36-month percentile: when the score drops below 45 (as it sits now at 46.2, the 35th percentile and falling), the agent interprets that as a moderating squeeze environment and automatically raises the price-promotion threshold in the campaign-planning system, reducing planned promotional depth by 5-10 percentage points to protect margin. When squeeze rises above 60 (the historical 70th-plus percentile that the index has reached at its max of 100), the agent reverses course and queues deeper value-messaging creative. The real_wage_gap_pct field in the IOM gives the agent a quantified gap — not just a direction — enabling proportional, not binary, adjustments.

📈

For the business

A VP of Merchandising at a national apparel chain uses ADW-017 alongside internal sales data to time seasonal markdown decisions. In periods when Core CPI YoY outpaces Wage Growth YoY — the exact divergence the index measures — the historical record shows squeeze scores reaching as high as 100 out of 100, signaling that consumers are under maximum financial pressure. Rather than relying on post-hoc sell-through data (which lags 4-6 weeks), the merchandising team uses the monthly IOM to pre-position inventory liquidity decisions 30 days earlier, avoiding the costly late-markdown trap that historically destroys 8-12 points of gross margin in stressed quarters.

Forward outlook

Prediction

Horizon
Recommended use
Time promotions and assortment shifts; high score = consumers under pressure, trade-down risk elevated. Descriptive, monthly lag applies.
Methodology

How it's built

YoY Core CPI vs YoY Avg Hourly Earnings divergence; z-score vs 36mo trailing window → 0-100 (50=neutral, >50=squeeze rising)

FRED (CPILFESL, CES0500000003)

Version ADW-017-live-1.0 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: none

Live response

The object an agent receives

One call returns the answer with its reasoning attached — the live Intelligence Object for ADW-017.

GET /v1/intelligence/adw-017
{
  "product_id": "ADW-017",
  "entity": "United States — consumers (national)",
  "score": 46.2,
  "trend": "stable",
  "confidence": 0.87,
  "top_drivers": [
    {
      "factor": "core_cpi_yoy_pct",
      "contribution": 2.96
    },
    {
      "factor": "wage_growth_yoy_pct",
      "contribution": 3.45
    },
    {
      "factor": "raw_squeeze_gap_pct",
      "contribution": 0
    }
  ],
  "recommended_use": "Time promotions and assortment shifts; high score = consumers under pressure, trade-down risk elevated. Descriptive, monthly lag applies.",
  "methodology_version": "ADW-017-live-1.0",
  "freshness": "2026-06-27T05:00:17.149Z",
  "coverage": "US national (FRED CPILFESL + CES0500000003)",
  "source_lineage": [
    "FRED CPILFESL (Core CPI)",
    "FRED CES0500000003 (Avg Hourly Earnings)"
  ],
  "allowed_use": "informational",
  "squeeze_score": 46.2,
  "squeeze_level": "moderate",
  "core_cpi_yoy_pct": 2.96,
  "wage_growth_yoy_pct": 3.45,
  "real_wage_gap_pct": -0.49,
  "validation_status": "descriptive"
}
IOM schema

The agent-callable contract

Every product conforms to the Intelligence Object Model — typed, versioned, and discoverable.

  • product_id
  • entity
  • score
  • trend
  • confidence
  • top_drivers
  • prediction_horizon
  • recommended_use
  • methodology_version
  • freshness
  • coverage
  • source_lineage
  • allowed_use
MCP tool: adw.adw_017
Access options

Consume it your way

  • Dashboard

    Read the score + drivers in the console.

  • REST API

    /v1/intelligence/adw-017

  • MCP tool

    adw.adw_017

  • Marketplace

    Discoverable by any MCP agent via the MCP registry.

  • White-label

    Embed under your own brand (Platinum).

Plan requirement

Depth scales with the plan

  • Free Sample object — current score only
  • Gold Full drivers + history + confidence
  • Platinum White-label + bulk + SLA
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Call ADW-017 in one request.