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Consumer/Macro · Index Gold

Shopper-Impact / Discretionary Squeeze

Enables retailers and brands to time promotions and optimize assortment by quantifying the financial pressure on consumers' discretionary spending.

Refresh
monthly
History
10.2 yrs
Plan
Gold
46.2/ 100
Stable

United States — consumers (national)

2016-05-01 10.2 yrs · 124 pts 2026-06-27

Top drivers

core_cpi_yoy_pctwage_growth_yoy_pctraw_squeeze_gap_pct
⌁ mcp.call("adw-017") vADW-017-live-1.0
Use cases

What it unlocks

For an agent

A retail pricing agent ingests ADW-017 on each monthly refresh and compares squeeze_score to its 36-month percentile: when the score drops below 45 (as it sits now at 46.2, the 35th percentile and falling), the agent interprets that as a moderating squeeze environment and automatically raises the price-promotion threshold in the campaign-planning system, reducing planned promotional depth by 5-10 percentage points to protect margin. When squeeze rises above 60 (the historical 70th-plus percentile that the index has reached at its max of 100), the agent reverses course and queues deeper value-messaging creative. The real_wage_gap_pct field in the IOM gives the agent a quantified gap — not just a direction — enabling proportional, not binary, adjustments.

📈

For the business

A VP of Merchandising at a national apparel chain uses ADW-017 alongside internal sales data to time seasonal markdown decisions. In periods when Core CPI YoY outpaces Wage Growth YoY — the exact divergence the index measures — the historical record shows squeeze scores reaching as high as 100 out of 100, signaling that consumers are under maximum financial pressure. Rather than relying on post-hoc sell-through data (which lags 4-6 weeks), the merchandising team uses the monthly IOM to pre-position inventory liquidity decisions 30 days earlier, avoiding the costly late-markdown trap that historically destroys 8-12 points of gross margin in stressed quarters.

Forward outlook

Prediction

Horizon
Recommended use
Time promotions and assortment shifts; high score = consumers under pressure, trade-down risk elevated. Descriptive, monthly lag applies.
Methodology

How it's built

YoY Core CPI vs YoY Avg Hourly Earnings divergence; z-score vs 36mo trailing window → 0-100 (50=neutral, >50=squeeze rising)

FRED (CPILFESL, CES0500000003)

Version ADW-017-live-1.0 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: none