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Consumer/Behavioral · metric Paid

Gas Perception-Gap

Quantifies divergence between actual gasoline price moves and consumer sentiment to flag political risk and demand-destruction scenarios.

Refresh
monthly
History
10.1 yrs
Plan
Paid
70.1/ 100
Stable

US consumers — gas price vs sentiment

2016-06-01 10.1 yrs · 124 pts 2026-06-27

Top drivers

gas_price_mom_pctsentiment_mom_pointdivergence_z_score
⌁ mcp.call("adw-026") vADW-026-live-1.0
Use cases

What it unlocks

For an agent

A political-risk and demand-forecasting agent polls ADW-026 monthly and flags a 'perception gap widening' alert when the score drops below 75 (score of 100 = aligned, lower = wider divergence). At the current reading of 69.0 — the 10th percentile of its 36-month history, meaning gas price moves and consumer sentiment are more misaligned than 90% of prior months — the agent automatically elevates political sensitivity flags in any retail or CPG workflow that touches fuel-dependent categories, and posts a demand-destruction warning to the forecasting system. The IOM's divergence_z_score field tells the agent the direction of the gap (gas prices rising faster than sentiment has adjusted, or vice versa), enabling it to distinguish between a consumer-overreaction scenario and a genuine demand-destruction signal.

📈

For the business

A Senior Economist at a fuel retail chain uses ADW-026 to anticipate demand-destruction episodes before they appear in weekly sales data. When gasoline CPI moves up sharply but UMich consumer sentiment has not yet adjusted downward — a lag gap the divergence_z_score captures precisely — historical episodes suggest consumers shift driving behavior within 4-6 weeks. The economist uses the low current alignment score (69.0, 10th percentile) to brief the pricing and inventory team that a demand correction is likely, allowing them to pre-position inventory and promotional response plans rather than reacting after the volume drop is already visible in point-of-sale data.

Forward outlook

Prediction

Horizon
Recommended use
Flag perception vs reality gaps for energy policy and consumer confidence research. Low score = high political/demand risk. Monthly lag applies.
Methodology

How it's built

MoM gas CPI % vs MoM UMich sentiment (scaled); |divergence| z-scored vs 36mo history; score 100=aligned, 0=extreme gap

FRED (CUSR0000SETB01, UMCSENT)

Version ADW-026-live-1.0 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: none

Live response

The object an agent receives

One call returns the answer with its reasoning attached — the live Intelligence Object for ADW-026.

GET /v1/intelligence/adw-026
{
  "product_id": "ADW-026",
  "entity": "US consumers — gas price vs sentiment",
  "score": 70.1,
  "trend": "moderate-lag",
  "confidence": 0.8,
  "top_drivers": [
    {
      "factor": "gas_price_mom_pct",
      "contribution": 7.04
    },
    {
      "factor": "sentiment_mom_point",
      "contribution": -5
    },
    {
      "factor": "divergence_z_score",
      "contribution": 1.497
    }
  ],
  "recommended_use": "Flag perception vs reality gaps for energy policy and consumer confidence research. Low score = high political/demand risk. Monthly lag applies.",
  "methodology_version": "ADW-026-live-1.0",
  "freshness": "2026-06-27T05:00:17.017Z",
  "coverage": "US national (FRED CUSR0000SETB01 + UMCSENT)",
  "source_lineage": [
    "FRED CUSR0000SETB01 (Gasoline CPI)",
    "FRED UMCSENT (UMich Sentiment)"
  ],
  "allowed_use": "informational",
  "perception_gap_score": 70.1,
  "alignment_label": "moderate-divergence",
  "gasoline_cpi_latest": 378.66,
  "gasoline_cpi_mom_pct": 7.04,
  "umich_sentiment_latest": 44.8,
  "umich_sentiment_mom_point": -5,
  "divergence_z_score": 1.497,
  "validation_status": "descriptive"
}
IOM schema

The agent-callable contract

Every product conforms to the Intelligence Object Model — typed, versioned, and discoverable.

  • product_id
  • entity
  • score
  • trend
  • confidence
  • top_drivers
  • prediction_horizon
  • recommended_use
  • methodology_version
  • freshness
  • coverage
  • source_lineage
  • allowed_use
MCP tool: adw.adw_026
Access options

Consume it your way

  • Dashboard

    Read the score + drivers in the console.

  • REST API

    /v1/intelligence/adw-026

  • MCP tool

    adw.adw_026

  • Marketplace

    Discoverable by any MCP agent via the MCP registry.

  • White-label

    Embed under your own brand (Platinum).

Plan requirement

Depth scales with the plan

  • Free Sample object — current score only
  • Gold Full drivers + history + confidence
  • Platinum White-label + bulk + SLA
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Call ADW-026 in one request.