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Consumer/Behavioral · metric Gold

Gas Perception-Gap

Quantifies divergence between actual gasoline price moves and consumer sentiment to flag political risk and demand-destruction scenarios.

Refresh
monthly
History
10.1 yrs
Plan
Gold
70.1/ 100
Stable

US consumers — gas price vs sentiment

2016-06-01 10.1 yrs · 124 pts 2026-06-27

Top drivers

gas_price_mom_pctsentiment_mom_pointdivergence_z_score
⌁ mcp.call("adw-026") vADW-026-live-1.0
Use cases

What it unlocks

For an agent

A political-risk and demand-forecasting agent polls ADW-026 monthly and flags a 'perception gap widening' alert when the score drops below 75 (score of 100 = aligned, lower = wider divergence). At the current reading of 69.0 — the 10th percentile of its 36-month history, meaning gas price moves and consumer sentiment are more misaligned than 90% of prior months — the agent automatically elevates political sensitivity flags in any retail or CPG workflow that touches fuel-dependent categories, and posts a demand-destruction warning to the forecasting system. The IOM's divergence_z_score field tells the agent the direction of the gap (gas prices rising faster than sentiment has adjusted, or vice versa), enabling it to distinguish between a consumer-overreaction scenario and a genuine demand-destruction signal.

📈

For the business

A Senior Economist at a fuel retail chain uses ADW-026 to anticipate demand-destruction episodes before they appear in weekly sales data. When gasoline CPI moves up sharply but UMich consumer sentiment has not yet adjusted downward — a lag gap the divergence_z_score captures precisely — historical episodes suggest consumers shift driving behavior within 4-6 weeks. The economist uses the low current alignment score (69.0, 10th percentile) to brief the pricing and inventory team that a demand correction is likely, allowing them to pre-position inventory and promotional response plans rather than reacting after the volume drop is already visible in point-of-sale data.

Forward outlook

Prediction

Horizon
Recommended use
Flag perception vs reality gaps for energy policy and consumer confidence research. Low score = high political/demand risk. Monthly lag applies.
Methodology

How it's built

MoM gas CPI % vs MoM UMich sentiment (scaled); |divergence| z-scored vs 36mo history; score 100=aligned, 0=extreme gap

FRED (CUSR0000SETB01, UMCSENT)

Version ADW-026-live-1.0 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: none