Wage-Price Spiral Risk →

A fixed-income portfolio management agent polls ADW-037 monthly and uses the spiral_risk_score to gate duration decisions: when the score exceeds 55 (the 65th percentile of its 36-month history) with a rising trend, the agent shortens portfolio duration by shifting weight from 10-year to 2-year Treasuries, on the thesis that a wage-price feedback loop raises the probability of additional Fed tightening. The current score of 36.5 sits at only the 8th percentile — the lowest spiral-risk reading in the 10-year backtest range of 31.9 to 71.0 — so the agent holds current duration and flags the falling trend as a signal that the wage-CPI feedback loop is breaking, a green light for extending duration cautiously. The IOM's wages_z and cpi_z fields let the agent determine whether the deceleration is wage-led or CPI-led, which matters for whether to buy nominal or inflation-linked bonds.

A Chief Investment Officer at a pension fund uses ADW-037 monthly to supplement the Fed's Beige Book and employment reports with a single composite spiral-risk number that quantifies the reinforcing relationship between Avg Hourly Earnings YoY and Core CPI YoY — exactly the feedback the Fed has stated it monitors most closely for over-tightening risk. At the current 8th-percentile reading with a falling trend, the CIO has a defensible, data-backed basis for increasing allocation to longer-duration bonds, replacing a narrative judgment ('inflation seems to be cooling') with a reproducible IOM whose source_lineage and methodology_version can be shared directly with the investment committee and auditors.