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Supply Chain/Macro · Index Paid

Freight & Logistics Cost Index

How much pressure are freight and diesel costs placing on supply chains and margins right now?

Refresh
monthly
History
10.1 yrs
Plan
Paid
57.6/ 100
Stable

US freight & logistics markets

2016-06-01 10.1 yrs · 124 pts 2026-06-27

Top drivers

truck_freight_ppi_yoy_pctdiesel_4wk_chg_pctcomposite_z
⌁ mcp.call("adw-038") vADW-038-live-1.0
Use cases

What it unlocks

For an agent

A supply-chain cost monitoring agent polls ADW-038 monthly and triggers a margin-risk alert when the freight_cost_score rises above 60 (the index's approximate 70th percentile) with a rising trend — the current reading of 57.6 at the 67th percentile and trending upward puts it just below the alert threshold, with the next month's read likely to determine whether an automated reorder-price negotiation workflow fires. When the alert triggers, the IOM's top_drivers field distinguishes between truck_freight_ppi_yoy_pct (the 55%-weight structural component) and diesel_4wk_change_pct (the 45%-weight near-term component), allowing the agent to route to either a carrier-contract renegotiation workflow (if PPI is leading) or a fuel-surcharge variance request (if diesel is leading). The source_lineage citing FRED PCU484121484121 and GASDESW ensures the agent's cost justification is grounded in publicly verifiable data rather than proprietary index estimates.

📈

For the business

A VP of Supply Chain at a consumer goods manufacturer uses ADW-038 as a monthly check against the company's internal landed-cost models, which rely on contracted carrier rates and miss spot-market pressure. With the Freight & Logistics Cost Index up 20.8% over its 10-year baseline reading and now at the 67th percentile on a rising trend, the VP can quantify the macro tailwind driving logistics cost overruns before the quarterly P&L shows the damage — typically a 6-8 week lag. This early visibility enables the VP to propose a freight-surcharge pass-through to customers or accelerate near-shoring options while the cost spike is still early-cycle, rather than absorbing the full hit and renegotiating retroactively.

Forward outlook

Prediction

Horizon
Recommended use
Gauge freight-cost pressure on supply-chain margins. High score = elevated trucking and diesel costs; adjust logistics contracts and pricing. Descriptive, monthly lag for PPI.
Methodology

How it's built

Truck Freight PPI YoY + Diesel 4-week % change; weighted z-scores (0.55/0.45) vs 36-period trailing window → 0-100

FRED (PCU484121484121, GASDESW)

Version ADW-038-live-1.0 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: none

Live response

The object an agent receives

One call returns the answer with its reasoning attached — the live Intelligence Object for ADW-038.

GET /v1/intelligence/adw-038
{
  "product_id": "ADW-038",
  "entity": "US freight & logistics markets",
  "score": 57.6,
  "trend": "cost-rising",
  "confidence": 0.82,
  "top_drivers": [
    {
      "factor": "truck_freight_ppi_yoy_pct",
      "contribution": 21.07
    },
    {
      "factor": "diesel_4wk_chg_pct",
      "contribution": -12.51
    },
    {
      "factor": "composite_z",
      "contribution": 0.761
    }
  ],
  "recommended_use": "Gauge freight-cost pressure on supply-chain margins. High score = elevated trucking and diesel costs; adjust logistics contracts and pricing. Descriptive, monthly lag for PPI.",
  "methodology_version": "ADW-038-live-1.0",
  "freshness": "2026-06-27T06:00:14.400Z",
  "coverage": "US national (FRED PCU484121484121 + GASDESW)",
  "source_lineage": [
    "FRED PCU484121484121 (Truck Freight PPI)",
    "FRED GASDESW (Diesel Retail Price)"
  ],
  "allowed_use": "informational",
  "freight_cost_score": 57.6,
  "cost_level": "moderate",
  "truck_freight_ppi_yoy_pct": 21.07,
  "diesel_price_latest_usd": 4.832,
  "diesel_4wk_change_pct": -12.51,
  "freight_z": 2.443,
  "diesel_z": -1.295,
  "composite_z": 0.761,
  "validation_status": "descriptive"
}
IOM schema

The agent-callable contract

Every product conforms to the Intelligence Object Model — typed, versioned, and discoverable.

  • product_id
  • entity
  • score
  • trend
  • confidence
  • top_drivers
  • prediction_horizon
  • recommended_use
  • methodology_version
  • freshness
  • coverage
  • source_lineage
  • allowed_use
MCP tool: adw.adw_038
Access options

Consume it your way

  • Dashboard

    Read the score + drivers in the console.

  • REST API

    /v1/intelligence/adw-038

  • MCP tool

    adw.adw_038

  • Marketplace

    Discoverable by any MCP agent via the MCP registry.

  • White-label

    Embed under your own brand (Platinum).

Plan requirement

Depth scales with the plan

  • Free Sample object — current score only
  • Gold Full drivers + history + confidence
  • Platinum White-label + bulk + SLA
Compare plans →

Call ADW-038 in one request.