Name: Healthcare Cost Inflation Index
Brand: AlpineDataWorks.AI
SKU: ADW-040
Availability: InStock

Use cases

What it unlocks

⌁

For an agent

A healthcare benefits-management agent polls ADW-040 monthly; when the score rises above 65 (currently 58.5, 61st percentile over 10 years of data ranging from 8.7 to 100) and the trend field reads 'rising', it automatically flags employer health-plan renewals for renegotiation, cross-references source_lineage (FRED CPIMEDSL vs CPILFESL) to confirm the spread is statistically significant, and drafts a cost-shift memo citing the specific healthcare_spread_pct driver — all auditable because methodology_version pins the z-score window to 36 months.

📈

For the business

A CFO preparing annual benefits budgets uses ADW-040's healthcare_spread_pct and inflation_label to quantify how far medical costs are outrunning core CPI, replacing a manual BLS data pull that previously required a finance analyst two days of reconciliation; with the IOM's top_drivers field identifying whether hospital services or prescription drugs are leading the acceleration, the CFO can direct the benefits team to the right levers before the carrier negotiation window closes.

Forward outlook

Prediction

Horizon: —
Recommended use: Monitor healthcare cost inflation premium over core CPI. High score = medical costs accelerating above baseline; adjust insurance pricing and benefit budgets. Descriptive, monthly lag.

Methodology

How it's built

Medical CPI YoY minus Core CPI YoY spread; z-score vs 36mo trailing window × 15 → 0-100

FRED (CPIMEDSL, CPILFESL)

Version ADW-040-live-1.0 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: none

Live response

The object an agent receives

One call returns the answer with its reasoning attached — the live Intelligence Object for ADW-040.

GET /v1/intelligence/adw-040

{
  "product_id": "ADW-040",
  "entity": "US healthcare cost inflation",
  "score": 58.5,
  "trend": "stable",
  "confidence": 0.83,
  "top_drivers": [
    {
      "factor": "medical_cpi_yoy_pct",
      "contribution": 2.86
    },
    {
      "factor": "core_cpi_yoy_pct",
      "contribution": 2.96
    },
    {
      "factor": "healthcare_spread_pct",
      "contribution": -0.09
    }
  ],
  "recommended_use": "Monitor healthcare cost inflation premium over core CPI. High score = medical costs accelerating above baseline; adjust insurance pricing and benefit budgets. Descriptive, monthly lag.",
  "methodology_version": "ADW-040-live-1.0",
  "freshness": "2026-06-27T06:00:13.872Z",
  "coverage": "US national (FRED CPIMEDSL + CPILFESL)",
  "source_lineage": [
    "FRED CPIMEDSL (Medical Care CPI)",
    "FRED CPILFESL (Core CPI)"
  ],
  "allowed_use": "informational",
  "healthcare_inflation_score": 58.5,
  "inflation_label": "aligned",
  "medical_cpi_yoy_pct": 2.86,
  "core_cpi_yoy_pct": 2.96,
  "healthcare_spread_pct": -0.09,
  "spread_z": 0.569,
  "validation_status": "descriptive"
}

IOM schema