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Auto/Consumer · Index Gold

Auto-Market Affordability Index

How affordable is purchasing a new vehicle today relative to recent history?

Refresh
monthly
History
10.1 yrs
Plan
Gold
48.8/ 100
Stable

US auto market affordability

2016-06-01 10.1 yrs · 124 pts 2026-06-27

Top drivers

new_vehicle_cpi_yoy_pctauto_loan_rate_pctcomposite_z
⌁ mcp.call("adw-042") vADW-042-live-1.0
Use cases

What it unlocks

For an agent

An automotive lending agent monitors ADW-042 monthly; when the affordability score falls below 45 (currently 48.8, near the 19th percentile over a 10-year range of 29.7 to 79.3) and auto_loan_rate_pct is rising, it automatically tightens credit-decisioning thresholds for used-vehicle loans, attaches the composite_z and vehicle_price_z fields to the underwriting record for model auditability, and only acts when confidence exceeds 0.75 — ensuring the score shift reflects genuine macro stress rather than a one-month spike.

📈

For the business

A regional auto dealer network's VP of Finance uses ADW-042's affordability_label and new_vehicle_cpi_yoy_pct to decide whether to expand or contract manufacturer incentive programs; the IOM replaces a quarterly consultant report that combined FRED CPI data with Experian loan-rate averages, delivering the same composite signal monthly and allowing the team to react within days of a Fed rate move rather than waiting for the next report cycle.

Forward outlook

Prediction

Horizon
Recommended use
Track auto-market affordability stress. High score = vehicles unaffordable due to price+rate squeeze; anticipate demand pullback. Descriptive, monthly/quarterly lag.
Methodology

How it's built

New Vehicle CPI YoY z-score + 48-mo auto loan rate level z-score; weighted composite (0.6/0.4) vs 36-period window → 0-100

FRED (CUSR0000SETA01, TERMCBAUTO48NS)

Version ADW-042-live-1.0 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: none