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Monetary/Macro · Index Gold

Money-Supply Momentum Index

Is M2 money supply growth above or below its historical trend, and how does velocity amplify or dampen that signal?

Refresh
monthly
History
10.1 yrs
Plan
Gold
48.2/ 100
Stable

US money supply (M2 stock + velocity)

2016-06-01 10.1 yrs · 124 pts 2026-06-27

Top drivers

m2_yoy_pctm2v_levelcomposite_z
⌁ mcp.call("adw-047") vADW-047-live-1.0
Use cases

What it unlocks

For an agent

A macro-strategy agent checks ADW-047 monthly; when the money_momentum_score drops below 45 (it has ranged from 36.4 to 58.9 across 123 observations; currently 48.2, 59th percentile, falling trend) and both m2_z and m2v_z are simultaneously contracting, it flags a monetary-tightening regime in the portfolio context engine, triggers rebalancing toward shorter-duration assets, and attaches the M2 YoY growth rate and velocity level from top_drivers for compliance documentation — methodology_version ensures the equal-weight composite formula is immutable across model versions.

📈

For the business

A chief investment officer uses ADW-047's monetary_impulse_label alongside the raw m2_yoy_pct and m2v_level fields to frame quarterly client letters on the liquidity cycle; the IOM condenses two separate FRED series (M2SL and M2V) and a 36-period z-score normalization into a single interpretable score, replacing an internal quant process that took half a day to update and was frequently delayed past the CIO's editorial deadline.

Forward outlook

Prediction

Horizon
Recommended use
Track monetary impulse. High score = M2 growing + velocity rising = inflationary pressure; low = contractionary. Descriptive, quarterly lag on velocity.
Methodology

How it's built

M2 52-week YoY z-score + M2V level z-score; equal-weight composite vs trailing 36-period window → 0-100

FRED (M2SL, M2V)

Version ADW-047-live-1.0 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: none