Name: Productivity Trend Index
Brand: AlpineDataWorks.AI
SKU: ADW-049
Availability: InStock

Use cases

What it unlocks

⌁

For an agent

A corporate-margin forecasting agent reads ADW-049 quarterly; when the productivity_trend_score rises above 55 and the ulc_z sub-component is falling (current score is 51.2, 74th percentile over 43 observations ranging 38.3 to 66.8, with a rising trend), it automatically upgrades the earnings-growth assumption in a sector model by 25 basis points, cites the productivity_yoy_pct and ulc_yoy_pct values from the IOM's top_drivers for analyst review, and requires confidence above 0.8 before triggering the assumption change — methodology_version anchors the 36-quarter trailing window so the signal is comparable across model runs.

📈

For the business

A sell-side equity strategist uses ADW-049's trend_label and composite_z to distinguish whether S&P 500 margin expansion is productivity-driven (sustainable) or merely cost-cutting-driven (fragile); with the score at a 74th percentile reading and rising, the current IOM signal supports an overweight on cyclicals that benefit from genuine efficiency gains, a call that previously required the strategist to manually reconcile BLS OPHNFB and ULCNFB releases on different publication schedules.

Forward outlook

Prediction

Horizon: —
Recommended use: Track the productivity-vs-labor-cost balance. High score = efficiency gains outpacing cost growth; favorable for margins. Descriptive, quarterly cadence.

Methodology

How it's built

OPHNFB level z-score minus ULCNFB level z-score; composite vs 36-quarter trailing window → 0-100 (>50=productivity leading)

FRED (OPHNFB, ULCNFB)

Version ADW-049-live-1.0 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: none

Live response

The object an agent receives

One call returns the answer with its reasoning attached — the live Intelligence Object for ADW-049.

GET /v1/intelligence/adw-049

{
  "product_id": "ADW-049",
  "entity": "US nonfarm business sector (productivity vs ULC)",
  "score": 51.2,
  "trend": "stable",
  "confidence": 0.81,
  "top_drivers": [
    {
      "factor": "productivity_yoy_pct",
      "contribution": 119.44
    },
    {
      "factor": "ulc_yoy_pct",
      "contribution": 123.78
    },
    {
      "factor": "composite_z",
      "contribution": 0.121
    }
  ],
  "recommended_use": "Track the productivity-vs-labor-cost balance. High score = efficiency gains outpacing cost growth; favorable for margins. Descriptive, quarterly cadence.",
  "methodology_version": "ADW-049-live-1.0",
  "freshness": "2026-06-27T06:00:22.926Z",
  "coverage": "US nonfarm business sector (FRED OPHNFB + ULCNFB)",
  "source_lineage": [
    "FRED OPHNFB (Nonfarm Productivity)",
    "FRED ULCNFB (Unit Labor Costs)"
  ],
  "allowed_use": "informational",
  "productivity_trend_score": 51.2,
  "trend_label": "balanced",
  "productivity_yoy_pct": 119.44,
  "ulc_yoy_pct": 123.78,
  "productivity_z": 1.669,
  "ulc_z": 1.548,
  "composite_z": 0.121,
  "validation_status": "descriptive"
}

IOM schema