Name: Mortgage-Market Health Index
Brand: AlpineDataWorks.AI
SKU: ADW-050
Availability: InStock

Use cases

What it unlocks

⌁

For an agent

A real-estate credit-risk agent monitors ADW-050 monthly; when the mortgage_health_score rises above 55 (currently 50.2, 79th percentile over 123 observations ranging 28.1 to 62.1, on a falling trend) and the delinquency_z sub-component accelerates upward, it automatically tightens LTV thresholds for new originations in the pipeline, embeds the mortgage_30yr_rate_pct and delinquency_rate_pct from source_lineage (FRED MORTGAGE30US + DRSFRMACBS) into the credit-memo for auditor review, and suppresses the tightening action if confidence is below 0.8 to avoid responding to a single quarter's seasonal delinquency blip.

📈

For the business

A head of residential lending at a regional bank uses ADW-050's health_label and composite_z as a leading indicator for provisioning decisions: when the score was at its historical low of 28.1 (signaling a healthy market), the team ran lean loan-loss reserves; at the current 79th-percentile reading the IOM is flagging above-average stress, informing a 10-basis-point uplift in the reserve ratio before the next ALLL review — a judgment that previously required the credit team to manually reconcile Freddie Mac rate data with Federal Reserve delinquency statistics published on different quarterly schedules.

Forward outlook

Prediction

Horizon: —
Recommended use: Monitor mortgage-market health via rate and delinquency. High score = high rates + rising delinquencies; flag housing credit risk. Descriptive.

Methodology

How it's built

MORTGAGE30US level z-score (52-week window) + DRSFRMACBS level z-score (36-quarter window); equal-weight composite → 0-100

FRED (MORTGAGE30US, DRSFRMACBS)

Version ADW-050-live-1.0 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: none

Live response

The object an agent receives

One call returns the answer with its reasoning attached — the live Intelligence Object for ADW-050.

GET /v1/intelligence/adw-050

{
  "product_id": "ADW-050",
  "entity": "US single-family mortgage market",
  "score": 50.2,
  "trend": "stable",
  "confidence": 0.83,
  "top_drivers": [
    {
      "factor": "mortgage_30yr_rate_pct",
      "contribution": 6.49
    },
    {
      "factor": "delinquency_rate_pct",
      "contribution": 1.89
    },
    {
      "factor": "composite_z",
      "contribution": 0.024
    }
  ],
  "recommended_use": "Monitor mortgage-market health via rate and delinquency. High score = high rates + rising delinquencies; flag housing credit risk. Descriptive.",
  "methodology_version": "ADW-050-live-1.0",
  "freshness": "2026-06-27T06:00:21.717Z",
  "coverage": "US single-family mortgage market (FRED MORTGAGE30US + DRSFRMACBS)",
  "source_lineage": [
    "FRED MORTGAGE30US (30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate)",
    "FRED DRSFRMACBS (Single-Family Mortgage Delinquency)"
  ],
  "allowed_use": "informational",
  "mortgage_health_score": 50.2,
  "health_label": "neutral",
  "mortgage_30yr_rate_pct": 6.49,
  "delinquency_rate_pct": 1.89,
  "mortgage_rate_z": 0.775,
  "delinquency_z": -0.727,
  "composite_z": 0.024,
  "validation_status": "descriptive"
}

IOM schema