Skip to content
AlpineDataWorks.AI
← All products
Consumer/Macro · Index Paid

Consumer Savings-Rate Stress Index

Are US consumers running down savings at an alarming rate?

Refresh
monthly
History
10.2 yrs
Plan
Paid
72.2/ 100
Stable

United States — personal saving

2016-05-01 10.2 yrs · 124 pts 2026-06-26

Top drivers

saving_rate_pctinverted_saving_zsaving_rate_3mo_change
⌁ mcp.call("adw-056") vADW-056-live-1.0
Use cases

What it unlocks

For an agent

A consumer-credit underwriting agent checks ADW-056 before setting approval thresholds for new revolving credit lines; when savings_stress_score exceeds 70 and the trend is rising (current: 72.2, 97th percentile — near the backtest maximum of 77.1 since 2016), the agent automatically tightens debt-to-income cutoffs by 5 percentage points and suppresses pre-approved limit increases, logging source_lineage (FRED PSAVERT) and methodology_version to satisfy model-risk governance. The 97th-percentile reading means consumers are drawing down savings at a rate seen only 3% of the time in the past decade, making the tightening action defensible in a model-risk audit.

📈

For the business

A retail chief risk officer uses ADW-056 to calibrate seasonal credit-limit expansion decisions. The current score of 72.2 — the highest in the backtest history aside from a brief peak at 77.1 — means personal saving rates have inverted sharply below the 36-month average; this is a leading indicator of delinquency stress (confirmed by ADW-015's concurrent 54.8 score) before charge-off data appears in quarterly filings. Versus the status quo of waiting for FDIC delinquency reports, this gives the risk team a 1–2 quarter head start to reduce exposure to the most savings-depleted customer segments.

Forward outlook

Prediction

Horizon
Recommended use
Monitor consumer financial resilience via saving rate. High score = low/falling saving = elevated spending fragility and default risk. Descriptive, monthly cadence.
Methodology

How it's built

Invert PSAVERT → z-score vs trailing 36-month window → 0-100 (50=neutral, >50=saving below historical average = elevated stress)

FRED (PSAVERT)

Version ADW-056-live-1.0 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: none packaged

Live response

The object an agent receives

One call returns the answer with its reasoning attached — the live Intelligence Object for ADW-056.

GET /v1/intelligence/adw-056
{
  "product_id": "ADW-056",
  "entity": "United States — personal saving",
  "score": 72.2,
  "trend": "savings-deteriorating",
  "confidence": 0.85,
  "top_drivers": [
    {
      "factor": "saving_rate_pct",
      "contribution": 3
    },
    {
      "factor": "inverted_saving_z",
      "contribution": 2.219
    },
    {
      "factor": "saving_rate_3mo_change",
      "contribution": -0.8
    }
  ],
  "recommended_use": "Monitor consumer financial resilience via saving rate. High score = low/falling saving = elevated spending fragility and default risk. Descriptive, monthly cadence.",
  "methodology_version": "ADW-056-live-1.0",
  "freshness": "2026-06-26T07:00:11.761Z",
  "coverage": "US national (FRED PSAVERT)",
  "source_lineage": [
    "FRED PSAVERT (Personal Saving Rate)"
  ],
  "allowed_use": "informational",
  "savings_stress_score": 72.2,
  "saving_rate_label": "low",
  "saving_rate_pct": 3,
  "saving_rate_3mo_change": -0.8,
  "inverted_saving_z": 2.219,
  "validation_status": "descriptive"
}
IOM schema

The agent-callable contract

Every product conforms to the Intelligence Object Model — typed, versioned, and discoverable.

  • product_id
  • entity
  • score
  • trend
  • confidence
  • top_drivers
  • prediction_horizon
  • recommended_use
  • methodology_version
  • freshness
  • coverage
  • source_lineage
  • allowed_use
MCP tool: adw.adw_056
Access options

Consume it your way

  • Dashboard

    Read the score + drivers in the console.

  • REST API

    /v1/intelligence/adw-056

  • MCP tool

    adw.adw_056

  • Marketplace

    Discoverable by any MCP agent via the MCP registry.

  • White-label

    Embed under your own brand (Platinum).

Plan requirement

Depth scales with the plan

  • Free Sample object — current score only
  • Gold Full drivers + history + confidence
  • Platinum White-label + bulk + SLA
Compare plans →

Call ADW-056 in one request.