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Consumer/Macro · Index Gold

Consumer Savings-Rate Stress Index

Are US consumers running down savings at an alarming rate?

Refresh
monthly
History
10.2 yrs
Plan
Gold
72.2/ 100
Stable

United States — personal saving

2016-05-01 10.2 yrs · 124 pts 2026-06-26

Top drivers

saving_rate_pctinverted_saving_zsaving_rate_3mo_change
⌁ mcp.call("adw-056") vADW-056-live-1.0
Use cases

What it unlocks

For an agent

A consumer-credit underwriting agent checks ADW-056 before setting approval thresholds for new revolving credit lines; when savings_stress_score exceeds 70 and the trend is rising (current: 72.2, 97th percentile — near the backtest maximum of 77.1 since 2016), the agent automatically tightens debt-to-income cutoffs by 5 percentage points and suppresses pre-approved limit increases, logging source_lineage (FRED PSAVERT) and methodology_version to satisfy model-risk governance. The 97th-percentile reading means consumers are drawing down savings at a rate seen only 3% of the time in the past decade, making the tightening action defensible in a model-risk audit.

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For the business

A retail chief risk officer uses ADW-056 to calibrate seasonal credit-limit expansion decisions. The current score of 72.2 — the highest in the backtest history aside from a brief peak at 77.1 — means personal saving rates have inverted sharply below the 36-month average; this is a leading indicator of delinquency stress (confirmed by ADW-015's concurrent 54.8 score) before charge-off data appears in quarterly filings. Versus the status quo of waiting for FDIC delinquency reports, this gives the risk team a 1–2 quarter head start to reduce exposure to the most savings-depleted customer segments.

Forward outlook

Prediction

Horizon
Recommended use
Monitor consumer financial resilience via saving rate. High score = low/falling saving = elevated spending fragility and default risk. Descriptive, monthly cadence.
Methodology

How it's built

Invert PSAVERT → z-score vs trailing 36-month window → 0-100 (50=neutral, >50=saving below historical average = elevated stress)

FRED (PSAVERT)

Version ADW-056-live-1.0 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: none packaged