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Climate/Risk · Index Gold

Climate-Disaster Cost Trend

Are US climate-disaster costs trending above historical norms?

Refresh
monthly
History
36.5 yrs
Plan
Gold
73.2/ 100
Stable

United States — billion-dollar climate disasters

1989-12-31 36.5 yrs · 40 pts 2026-06-27

Top drivers

latest_year_cost_usd_bz_score_vs_45yr_historycost_percentile_rank
⌁ mcp.call("adw-076") vADW-076-live-1.0
Use cases

What it unlocks

For an agent

An ESG-risk monitoring agent polls ADW-076 daily and, when the score rises above 75 (the current reading of 73.2, at the 85th percentile of the 1980-present NOAA NCEI cost history) with a rising trend and confidence > 0.8, it automatically triggers a re-pricing memo to the underwriting queue and flags any open property-catastrophe treaties that lack inflation-adjustment riders. The source_lineage pointing to NOAA NCEI CPI-adjusted annual series, combined with methodology_version, lets the compliance layer verify the exact vintage of the cost distribution used — a requirement for Solvency II internal-model sign-off.

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For the business

A Chief Actuary at a regional P&C insurer uses ADW-076's cost_z_score and trailing_10yr_mean_usd_b fields at each quarterly rate-filing to justify above-trend premium increases to state regulators. The IOM packages 45 years of NOAA NCEI data into a single auditable number, replacing a manual pull-and-normalize process that previously required two analysts and five days; the top_drivers array names the specific hazard categories (wind, flood, wildfire) lifting the score, giving underwriters the hazard-level decomposition they need to tighten deductibles selectively rather than across the board.

Forward outlook

Prediction

Horizon
Recommended use
Track rising US climate-disaster cost exposure for insurance pricing and ESG risk disclosures. Annual cadence; descriptive, CPI-adjusted.
Methodology

How it's built

z-score of latest annual cost vs full 1980-present history → clamp(50 + z×15, 0, 100)

NOAA NCEI Billion-Dollar Weather & Climate Disasters (ncei.noaa.gov, keyless)

Version ADW-076-live-1.0 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: Swiss Re Sigma (proprietary); Munich Re NatCat (proprietary)