73.2/ 100
Stable
United States — billion-dollar climate disasters
1989-12-31 36.5 yrs · 40 pts 2026-06-27
Top drivers
latest_year_cost_usd_bz_score_vs_45yr_historycost_percentile_rank
⌁ mcp.call("adw-076") vADW-076-live-1.0 ← All products
Climate/Risk · Index Paid
Climate-Disaster Cost Trend
Are US climate-disaster costs trending above historical norms?
- Refresh
- monthly
- History
- 36.5 yrs
- Plan
- Paid
Use cases
What it unlocks
⌁
For an agent
An ESG-risk monitoring agent polls ADW-076 daily and, when the score rises above 75 (the current reading of 73.2, at the 85th percentile of the 1980-present NOAA NCEI cost history) with a rising trend and confidence > 0.8, it automatically triggers a re-pricing memo to the underwriting queue and flags any open property-catastrophe treaties that lack inflation-adjustment riders. The source_lineage pointing to NOAA NCEI CPI-adjusted annual series, combined with methodology_version, lets the compliance layer verify the exact vintage of the cost distribution used — a requirement for Solvency II internal-model sign-off.
📈
For the business
A Chief Actuary at a regional P&C insurer uses ADW-076's cost_z_score and trailing_10yr_mean_usd_b fields at each quarterly rate-filing to justify above-trend premium increases to state regulators. The IOM packages 45 years of NOAA NCEI data into a single auditable number, replacing a manual pull-and-normalize process that previously required two analysts and five days; the top_drivers array names the specific hazard categories (wind, flood, wildfire) lifting the score, giving underwriters the hazard-level decomposition they need to tighten deductibles selectively rather than across the board.
Forward outlook
Prediction
- Horizon
- —
- Recommended use
- Track rising US climate-disaster cost exposure for insurance pricing and ESG risk disclosures. Annual cadence; descriptive, CPI-adjusted.
Methodology
How it's built
z-score of latest annual cost vs full 1980-present history → clamp(50 + z×15, 0, 100)
NOAA NCEI Billion-Dollar Weather & Climate Disasters (ncei.noaa.gov, keyless)
Version ADW-076-live-1.0 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: Swiss Re Sigma (proprietary); Munich Re NatCat (proprietary)
Live response
The object an agent receives
One call returns the answer with its reasoning attached — the live Intelligence Object for ADW-076.
GET /v1/intelligence/adw-076
{
"product_id": "ADW-076",
"entity": "United States — billion-dollar climate disasters",
"score": 73.2,
"trend": "elevated-and-rising",
"confidence": 0.9,
"top_drivers": [
{
"factor": "latest_year_cost_usd_b",
"contribution": 182.7
},
{
"factor": "z_score_vs_45yr_history",
"contribution": 1.545
},
{
"factor": "cost_percentile_rank",
"contribution": 0.933
}
],
"recommended_use": "Track rising US climate-disaster cost exposure for insurance pricing and ESG risk disclosures. Annual cadence; descriptive, CPI-adjusted.",
"methodology_version": "ADW-076-live-1.0",
"freshness": "2026-06-27T01:00:13.515Z",
"coverage": "US national — NOAA NCEI Billion-Dollar Disasters 1980–2024 (45 years)",
"source_lineage": [
"NOAA NCEI Billion-Dollar Weather & Climate Disasters (ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions) — keyless"
],
"allowed_use": "informational",
"latest_year": "2024",
"latest_cost_usd_b": 182.7,
"history_mean_cost_usd_b": 64.8,
"history_std_cost_usd_b": 76.3,
"cost_z_score": 1.545,
"cost_percentile_rank": 93.3,
"trailing_10yr_mean_usd_b": 140.7,
"years_in_history": 45,
"validation_status": "descriptive"
} IOM schema
The agent-callable contract
Every product conforms to the Intelligence Object Model — typed, versioned, and discoverable.
- product_id
- entity
- score
- trend
- confidence
- top_drivers
- prediction_horizon
- recommended_use
- methodology_version
- freshness
- coverage
- source_lineage
- allowed_use
MCP tool: adw.adw_076
Access options
Consume it your way
-
Dashboard
Read the score + drivers in the console.
-
REST API
/v1/intelligence/adw-076
-
MCP tool
adw.adw_076
-
Marketplace
Discoverable by any MCP agent via the MCP registry.
-
White-label
Embed under your own brand (Platinum).
Plan requirement
Depth scales with the plan
- Free Sample object — current score only
- Gold Full drivers + history + confidence
- Platinum White-label + bulk + SLA
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