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Markets/Vol · Index Gold

Phase-Slope

Identify cyclical volatility regime shifts to time entries and exits with higher predictive accuracy than standard volatility metrics.

Refresh
daily
History
9.9 yrs
Plan
Gold
65.8/ 100
Rising

S&P 500 (SPY)

2016-08-08 9.9 yrs · 2,485 pts 2026-06-26

Top drivers

vol_slope_10drealized_vol_20d_annslope_percentile_rank
⌁ mcp.call("adw-103") vADW-103-live-1.0
Use cases

What it unlocks

For an agent

A volatility-regime routing agent checks ADW-103 each day; when vol_slope_10d turns positive and the percentile-rank score rises above 60 (current reading is 65.8, 62nd percentile of a 2,485-day history), it shifts the portfolio's options book from short-gamma to long-gamma posture by auto-rolling near-dated short straddles into calendar spreads, attaching the IOM's trend field and methodology_version to each trade ticket so the risk-ops team can reconstruct the regime context months later. A falling score below 35 reverses the posture and signals that the OLS slope of 20-day realized vol has turned negative, indicating a calm-regime entry.

📈

For the business

A derivatives strategist at a prime brokerage uses ADW-103's realized_vol_20d_ann alongside the 10-day OLS slope to advise institutional clients on entry timing for variance swaps — specifically, entering long variance when Phase-Slope is low (vol slope negative, cheapening realized vol) and exiting when the score approaches the top quartile. Compared to simply watching the VIX term structure, Phase-Slope provides a ticker-grain, percentile-ranked signal that normalizes the slope magnitude against the full history, so the strategist can compare regimes across years rather than eyeballing a raw number.

Forward outlook

Prediction

Horizon
Recommended use
Identify cyclical vol turning points. Score > 60 = vol accelerating — consider defensive positioning or long-vol strategies.
Methodology

How it's built

20-day rolling realized vol series → 10-day OLS slope → percentile-rank over 252-day slope history → 0-100 score

Stooq daily OHLCV (SPY, keyless)

Version ADW-103-live-1.0 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: none