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Geophysical · Index Gold

Seismic-Risk Pulse

How seismically active is the world now?

Refresh
daily
History
9.9 yrs
Plan
Gold
78.6/ 100
Rising

Global

2016-07-17 9.9 yrs · 525 pts 2026-06-28

Top drivers

magnitude_energy_log10event_count_7dshallow_quake_fraction
⌁ mcp.call("adw-129") vADW-129-live-1.0
Use cases

What it unlocks

For an agent

A supply-chain risk agent monitoring commodity extraction assets queries ADW-129 (Seismic-Risk Pulse, daily refresh, USGS M4.5+ energy + count + shallow-event share, z-scored 0–100) each morning; when the score climbs above 80 with a 'rising' trend — historically the index has reached 98.8 in its 524-point backtest (mean 78.1, stdev 9.5) — the agent cross-references the top_drivers field to identify the highest-energy shallow-focus epicenters, then automatically generates port-or-pipeline disruption alerts for any assets within 200 km. Today's score of 72.6 (33rd percentile, trend rising) places the agent in elevated-watch mode without triggering a full alert, preserving signal precision. Source_lineage to USGS makes each alert citable in an insurer's loss-event log.

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For the business

An underwriter at a specialty catastrophe insurance firm uses ADW-129 to dynamically price short-term parametric earthquake covers: when the daily score is in the upper quartile of its historical range (above ~87 based on the 9.5-stdev spread around a 78.1 mean), the desk applies a loading factor to new parametric structures rather than waiting for a triggered event. The alternative — monitoring USGS ATOM feeds manually — gives raw M4.5+ listings with no normalization against historical baselines, so underwriters cannot distinguish a statistically elevated period from routine background seismicity.

Forward outlook

Prediction

Horizon
Recommended use
Monitor global seismic hazard pulse over the trailing 7-day window. Score reflects composite energy release, event rate, and shallow-focus rupture risk. Descriptive; not a forecast of future events.
Methodology

How it's built

composite z-score 0-100

Version ADW-129-live-1.0 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: n/a