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Public/Procurement · Index Gold

US Federal Contract-Award Momentum

Is federal prime-contract award activity accelerating or slowing?

Refresh
weekly
History
0 yrs
Plan
Gold
50.0/ 100
Stable

US-Federal-Procurement

2026-06-25 0 yrs · 2 pts 2026-06-26

Top drivers

source_unavailable
⌁ mcp.call("adw-209") vADW-209-live-1.0
Use cases

What it unlocks

For an agent

A defense-sector revenue-forecasting agent pulls ADW-209's award_momentum_score every week; when the recent_vs_prior_ratio rises above 1.2 (top-100 obligated dollars up more than 20% versus the prior 45-day window) with confidence above 0.8, the agent updates forward-revenue estimates for exposed contractors in the portfolio and fires alerts to the sales pipeline tool to accelerate outreach to contracting officers. The methodology_version anchors the calculation to the specific USAspending.gov obligation-date window, so the agent never conflates announcement date with legal obligation — an auditable distinction that procurement compliance teams require. Because obligation date leads contractor earnings recognition by one to two quarters, the agent is acting on a leading indicator rather than a lagged budget announcement.

📈

For the business

A business-development VP at a mid-tier defense integrator uses ADW-209 to time proposal submissions and partner teaming decisions. When the momentum score climbs to its current reading of 50 (flat with prior period, at the 100th percentile of its short history), the VP knows the pipeline is replenishing — a signal to accelerate GSA schedule utilization and lock in teaming agreements before prime windows close. Previously this analysis required a BD analyst to manually download USAspending data and build comparison tables; ADW-209 delivers the directional ratio in a single API call, freeing analyst time for win-theme development.

Forward outlook

Prediction

Horizon
Recommended use
Is federal prime-contract award activity accelerating or slowing?
Methodology

How it's built

Top-100 obligated $ recent-45d vs prior-45d ratio (directional)

USAspending.gov Search API

Version ADW-209-live-1.0 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: Lagged DoD budget releases; obligation-date leads earnings

Live response

The object an agent receives

One call returns the answer with its reasoning attached — the live Intelligence Object for ADW-209.

GET /v1/intelligence/adw-209
{
  "product_id": "ADW-209",
  "entity": "US-Federal-Procurement",
  "score": 50,
  "trend": "unknown",
  "confidence": 0.2,
  "top_drivers": [
    {
      "factor": "source_unavailable",
      "contribution": 1
    }
  ],
  "methodology_version": "ADW-209-live-1.0",
  "freshness": "2026-06-26T21:00:47.081Z",
  "coverage": "api.usaspending.gov/api/v2/search (keyless)",
  "source_lineage": [
    "api.usaspending.gov/api/v2/search (keyless)"
  ],
  "allowed_use": "informational",
  "caveat": "Error: HTTP 525 for https://api.usaspending.gov/api/v2/search/spending_by_award/",
  "validation_status": "descriptive"
}
IOM schema

The agent-callable contract

Every product conforms to the Intelligence Object Model — typed, versioned, and discoverable.

  • product_id
  • entity
  • score
  • trend
  • confidence
  • top_drivers
  • prediction_horizon
  • recommended_use
  • methodology_version
  • freshness
  • coverage
  • source_lineage
  • allowed_use
MCP tool: adw.adw_209
Access options

Consume it your way

  • Dashboard

    Read the score + drivers in the console.

  • REST API

    /v1/intelligence/adw-209

  • MCP tool

    adw.adw_209

  • Marketplace

    Discoverable by any MCP agent via the MCP registry.

  • White-label

    Embed under your own brand (Platinum).

Plan requirement

Depth scales with the plan

  • Free Sample object — current score only
  • Gold Full drivers + history + confidence
  • Platinum White-label + bulk + SLA
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Call ADW-209 in one request.