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Geophysical/Risk · Index Gold

Seismic Event Intensity

How elevated is global seismic energy release right now?

Refresh
hourly
History
66.5 yrs
Plan
Gold
98.9/ 100
Rising

Global-Seismic

1960-01-09 66.5 yrs · 3,467 pts 2026-06-26

Top drivers

max_magnitude_7dm4plus_event_countlog10_seismic_energy
⌁ mcp.call("adw-212") vADW-212-live-1.0
Use cases

What it unlocks

For an agent

A catastrophe-risk operations agent queries ADW-212 hourly; when intensity_score spikes above 80 (currently reading 98.7, at the 100th percentile of its history) — driven by a surge in max_magnitude_7d or m4plus_count — the agent cross-references the USGS magnitude data in source_lineage against the agent's insured-exposure database, instantly generates a first-loss estimate for affected geographies, and pages the on-call underwriter with a structured alert. The log10 seismic-moment methodology (10^1.5M summed over M4+ events) captures the exponential energy difference between a M5 and M7 event that binary 'quake happened' news feeds completely miss, making the agent's severity triage far more accurate. The hourly refresh window — grounded in USGS FDSN real-time data — means the agent acts within the first hour of a significant cluster rather than waiting for next-morning news summaries.

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For the business

A reinsurance underwriter uses ADW-212 as a real-time event filter during treaty renewal season to assess whether a region is in an elevated seismic-energy period before finalizing cat-layer pricing. When intensity_score is at or near 98.7 (its current reading), the underwriter knows global seismic energy release is at the high end of observed history and applies a loading factor to Pacific Rim and subduction-zone exposures. Previously, the underwriter relied on news alerts that reported only the largest single event and missed the cumulative risk of a swarm of M4–M5 events; ADW-212's summed-moment methodology corrects this blind spot, supporting a more defensible pricing rationale.

Forward outlook

Prediction

Horizon
Recommended use
How elevated is global seismic energy release right now?
Methodology

How it's built

log10 of summed seismic-moment proxy (10^1.5M) over M4+ events, 7d, scaled

USGS Earthquake FDSN

Version ADW-212-live-1.0 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: Binary 'quake happened' news; this captures exponential energy + clustering