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International/Trade · signal Gold

GDELT Conflict-to-Trade Disruption Signal

Is global trade-disruption news (tariffs/sanctions/export bans) escalating?

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hourly
History
0 yrs
Plan
Gold
50.0/ 100
Stable

Global-Trade

2026-06-25 0 yrs · 2 pts 2026-06-26

Top drivers

source_unavailable
⌁ mcp.call("adw-238") vADW-238-live-1.0
Use cases

What it unlocks

For an agent

A supply-chain routing agent consumes ADW-238 hourly and, when the disruption_score rises above 65 (meaning the recent 3-day global news volume on tariffs, sanctions, and export-ban queries exceeds the 30-day baseline by a significant ratio), automatically pauses new purchase-order commitments to affected origin regions and notifies the procurement system to evaluate alternative sourcing lanes. The agent validates methodology_version before acting — confirming it is reading the current recent-vs-baseline-ratio formula and not a legacy window — ensuring the trigger logic is consistent across automated decisions. This cuts the detection lag from the 4–6 week delay in PMI export-order surveys to same-day GDELT signal.

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For the business

A supply-chain VP at a consumer electronics manufacturer uses the disruption_score and recent_vs_baseline_ratio from ADW-238 to decide whether to accelerate inbound inventory builds or hold position, integrating the signal into weekly S&OP reviews. The GDELT-based real-time news corpus captures emerging tariff and sanctions rhetoric before it appears in official trade statistics or PMI releases, giving the supply-chain team a 2–4 week head start on decisions that can cost millions in expedited freight or excess inventory if made late.

Forward outlook

Prediction

Horizon
Recommended use
Is global trade-disruption news (tariffs/sanctions/export bans) escalating?
Methodology

How it's built

Recent-3d vs 30d global news volume on trade-disruption query

GDELT 2.0 DOC API

Version ADW-238-live-1.0 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: PMI export-orders (lagged survey); GDELT is real-time