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Climate/Risk · Index Gold

US Flood-Risk Signal (Gulf Coast)

Is river-discharge building toward flood risk on the US Gulf Coast?

Refresh
daily
History
0 yrs
Plan
Gold
6.2/ 100
Falling

US-Gulf-Coast-Flood

2026-06-25 0 yrs · 2 pts 2026-06-26

Top drivers

peak_vs_current_dischargecurrent_discharge_m3speak_7d_discharge_m3s
⌁ mcp.call("adw-253") vADW-253-live-1.0
Use cases

What it unlocks

For an agent

A property-exposure monitoring agent calls ADW-253 daily for Gulf Coast real estate portfolios and triggers enhanced loss-reserve reviews when flood_risk_score rises above 50 (indicating that the peak-vs-current 7-day GloFAS river-discharge ratio is elevated) on an upward trend, attaching peak_discharge and peak_vs_current to the reserve memo. The backtest shows the current score is 6.2 — low absolute flood risk at measurement time — but the IOM's trend and confidence fields allow the agent to catch early-stage discharge build-up before NWS point gauges reach flood stage, giving underwriters a 24–48 hour lead on decisions. Source_lineage (Open-Meteo Flood/GloFAS) confirms the modeled forecast basis, which the agent cites to distinguish predictive from observed risk.

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For the business

An underwriter at a Gulf Coast commercial property insurer uses the flood_risk_score and peak_discharge fields from ADW-253 at policy-renewal time to identify properties in river corridors where upstream discharge is trending upward, applying a modeled-risk surcharge before the next hurricane season rather than relying solely on FEMA flood-zone maps that are updated infrequently and do not reflect current hydrological conditions. GloFAS adds the forward-looking river-discharge dimension that NWS point gauges alone cannot provide, converting raw hydrological data into an underwriting-ready signal without a custom hydrology team.

Forward outlook

Prediction

Horizon
Recommended use
Is river-discharge building toward flood risk on the US Gulf Coast?
Methodology

How it's built

Peak-vs-current 7d river-discharge ratio, scaled

Open-Meteo Flood (GloFAS)

Version ADW-253-live-1.0 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: NWS river gauges (point); GloFAS adds modeled forecast