Name: US Housing-Starts Momentum
Brand: AlpineDataWorks.AI
SKU: ADW-255
Availability: InStock

Use cases

What it unlocks

⌁

For an agent

A real-estate sector allocation agent polls ADW-255 monthly and — when momentum_score rises above 65 (the backtest range is 0–100 with a mean of 56.5, and the current reading of 59.3 at the 51st percentile is in a rising trend) — automatically overweights homebuilder and building-materials equities in the tactical sleeve by 150 basis points, logging deviation_pct and source_lineage (FRED HOUST series) in the trade rationale for compliance review. The use of methodology_version guards against acting on a formula change that alters the trailing-mean deviation calculation, ensuring the signal definition is stable across automated rebalancing cycles.

📈

For the business

A real estate investment trust CFO uses the momentum_score and deviation_pct from ADW-255 to time equity raise windows, preferring to bring new offerings to market when housing-starts momentum is positive — because rising starts signal developer confidence, builder credit availability, and near-term rent-demand growth that lift REIT valuations. Unlike the single Census Bureau headline print, which requires manual context (was it a one-month spike or a sustained trend?), the deviation-from-trailing-mean momentum score condenses that judgment into an immediately actionable number, letting the CFO decision be made in a weekly capital-markets call rather than after a multi-day analyst deep-dive.

Forward outlook

Prediction

Horizon: —
Recommended use: Is US housing construction accelerating or stalling?

Methodology

How it's built

recent vs trailing-mean % deviation, scaled (FRED HOUST)

FRED (St. Louis Fed)

Version ADW-255-live-1.0 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: single headline print; this normalizes to momentum

Live response

The object an agent receives

One call returns the answer with its reasoning attached — the live Intelligence Object for ADW-255.

GET /v1/intelligence/adw-255

{
  "product_id": "ADW-255",
  "entity": "US-Housing",
  "score": 59.3,
  "trend": "rising",
  "confidence": 0.6,
  "top_drivers": [
    {
      "factor": "recent_value",
      "contribution": 1363.67
    },
    {
      "factor": "trailing_mean",
      "contribution": 1351.08
    },
    {
      "factor": "deviation_pct",
      "contribution": 0.0093
    }
  ],
  "methodology_version": "ADW-255-live-1.0",
  "freshness": "2026-06-26T22:00:16.073Z",
  "coverage": "US housing starts, SAAR (FRED, monthly)",
  "source_lineage": [
    "api.stlouisfed.org/fred (HOUST)"
  ],
  "allowed_use": "evaluation, commercial",
  "competitor_benchmark": "Single NAHB print; this is normalized momentum",
  "validation_status": "descriptive"
}

IOM schema