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Consumer/Spending · Index Gold

US Retail-Sales Momentum

Is US consumer retail spending accelerating?

Refresh
monthly
History
10.1 yrs
Plan
Gold
76.3/ 100
Rising

US-Retail

2016-06-01 10.1 yrs · 122 pts 2026-06-26

Top drivers

recent_valuetrailing_meandeviation_pct
⌁ mcp.call("adw-256") vADW-256-live-1.0
Use cases

What it unlocks

For an agent

A consumer-demand forecasting agent polls ADW-256 (US Retail-Sales Momentum, sourced from FRED RSAFS) after each monthly Census release. When the momentum_score crosses above 75 — currently at 76.3, the 80th percentile of its 10-year range — and trend is confirmed 'rising', the agent automatically increases inventory replenishment orders and raises revenue-guidance inputs for the next quarter. The source_lineage field (FRED/Census) and methodology_version ensure the agent is acting on a normalized deviation-from-trailing-mean signal rather than a raw seasonal print, making automated position changes auditable.

📈

For the business

A retail CFO preparing monthly board forecasts historically had to manually contextualize each Census retail-sales headline against seasonal norms and recent trend — a process taking hours of analyst time. ADW-256 delivers a single 0-100 momentum score (currently 76.3, 80th percentile historically) with trend direction, letting the CFO immediately see that consumer spending is running meaningfully above its own trailing baseline, not just a one-month beat — providing a cleaner basis for comp guidance than the raw YoY print alone.

Forward outlook

Prediction

Horizon
Recommended use
Is US consumer retail spending accelerating?
Methodology

How it's built

recent vs trailing-mean % deviation, scaled (FRED RSAFS)

FRED (St. Louis Fed)

Version ADW-256-live-1.0 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: single headline print; this normalizes to momentum