76.3/ 100
Rising
US-Retail
2016-06-01 10.1 yrs · 122 pts 2026-06-26
Top drivers
recent_valuetrailing_meandeviation_pct
⌁ mcp.call("adw-256") vADW-256-live-1.0 ← All products
Consumer/Spending · Index Gold
US Retail-Sales Momentum
Is US consumer retail spending accelerating?
- Refresh
- monthly
- History
- 10.1 yrs
- Plan
- Gold
Use cases
What it unlocks
⌁
For an agent
A consumer-demand forecasting agent polls ADW-256 (US Retail-Sales Momentum, sourced from FRED RSAFS) after each monthly Census release. When the momentum_score crosses above 75 — currently at 76.3, the 80th percentile of its 10-year range — and trend is confirmed 'rising', the agent automatically increases inventory replenishment orders and raises revenue-guidance inputs for the next quarter. The source_lineage field (FRED/Census) and methodology_version ensure the agent is acting on a normalized deviation-from-trailing-mean signal rather than a raw seasonal print, making automated position changes auditable.
📈
For the business
A retail CFO preparing monthly board forecasts historically had to manually contextualize each Census retail-sales headline against seasonal norms and recent trend — a process taking hours of analyst time. ADW-256 delivers a single 0-100 momentum score (currently 76.3, 80th percentile historically) with trend direction, letting the CFO immediately see that consumer spending is running meaningfully above its own trailing baseline, not just a one-month beat — providing a cleaner basis for comp guidance than the raw YoY print alone.
Forward outlook
Prediction
- Horizon
- —
- Recommended use
- Is US consumer retail spending accelerating?
Methodology
How it's built
recent vs trailing-mean % deviation, scaled (FRED RSAFS)
FRED (St. Louis Fed)
Version ADW-256-live-1.0 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: single headline print; this normalizes to momentum
Live response
The object an agent receives
One call returns the answer with its reasoning attached — the live Intelligence Object for ADW-256.
GET /v1/intelligence/adw-256
{
"product_id": "ADW-256",
"entity": "US-Retail",
"score": 76.3,
"trend": "rising",
"confidence": 0.6,
"top_drivers": [
{
"factor": "recent_value",
"contribution": 758251.33
},
{
"factor": "trailing_mean",
"contribution": 738806.08
},
{
"factor": "deviation_pct",
"contribution": 0.0263
}
],
"methodology_version": "ADW-256-live-1.0",
"freshness": "2026-06-26T22:00:17.690Z",
"coverage": "US advance retail sales (FRED, monthly)",
"source_lineage": [
"api.stlouisfed.org/fred (RSAFS)"
],
"allowed_use": "evaluation, commercial",
"competitor_benchmark": "Headline retail print; this is trailing-mean momentum",
"validation_status": "descriptive"
} IOM schema
The agent-callable contract
Every product conforms to the Intelligence Object Model — typed, versioned, and discoverable.
- product_id
- entity
- score
- trend
- confidence
- top_drivers
- prediction_horizon
- recommended_use
- methodology_version
- freshness
- coverage
- source_lineage
- allowed_use
MCP tool: adw.adw_256
Access options
Consume it your way
-
Dashboard
Read the score + drivers in the console.
-
REST API
/v1/intelligence/adw-256
-
MCP tool
adw.adw_256
-
Marketplace
Discoverable by any MCP agent via the MCP registry.
-
White-label
Embed under your own brand (Platinum).
Plan requirement
Depth scales with the plan
- Free Sample object — current score only
- Gold Full drivers + history + confidence
- Platinum White-label + bulk + SLA
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