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Real Estate/Leading · Index Gold

US Building-Permits Momentum

Are US building permits (leading housing) accelerating?

Refresh
monthly
History
10.1 yrs
Plan
Gold
35.4/ 100
Falling

US-Housing-Permits

2016-06-01 10.1 yrs · 122 pts 2026-06-26

Top drivers

recent_valuetrailing_meandeviation_pct
⌁ mcp.call("adw-261") vADW-261-live-1.0
Use cases

What it unlocks

For an agent

A real-estate investment trust (REIT) analytics agent monitors ADW-261 (US Building-Permits Momentum, FRED PERMIT) monthly as a 6-to-12-month leading indicator of housing supply. Currently the score is 35.4 at the 27th percentile — below its long-run mean of 54.99 but trend is 'rising' — so the agent flags residential construction subsectors as approaching an inflection and queues a research task to evaluate land-acquisition pipeline. It attaches the IOM's source_lineage (FRED PERMIT/Census) and methodology_version to the research ticket so analysts can reproduce the signal without re-fetching raw data.

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For the business

A homebuilder's VP of Strategy uses ADW-261 to time land acquisition and subcontractor capacity reservations. Raw permit counts require manual seasonality adjustments and comparison to prior-year ranges; ADW-261's score of 35.4 (27th percentile, rising) immediately communicates that permits are recovering off a depressed base — still below normal but directionally improving — giving the team a 4-to-6-month runway to secure land before the competitive window closes.

Forward outlook

Prediction

Horizon
Recommended use
Are US building permits (leading housing) accelerating?
Methodology

How it's built

recent vs trailing-mean % deviation, scaled (FRED PERMIT)

FRED (St. Louis Fed)

Version ADW-261-live-1.0 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: single headline print; this normalizes to momentum