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Consumer/Spending · Index Gold

US Consumption Momentum

Is US personal consumption accelerating?

Refresh
monthly
History
10.2 yrs
Plan
Gold
73.1/ 100
Rising

US-Consumption

2016-05-01 10.2 yrs · 122 pts 2026-06-26

Top drivers

recent_valuetrailing_meandeviation_pct
⌁ mcp.call("adw-263") vADW-263-live-1.0
Use cases

What it unlocks

For an agent

A revenue-forecasting agent at a consumer-facing SaaS platform polls ADW-263 (US Consumption Momentum, FRED PCE) monthly. With the score at 73.1 (74th percentile, falling trend), the agent flags that personal consumption is still above its trailing mean but losing momentum, and automatically dials back the top-of-funnel expansion budget by 10% while preserving retention spend — acting before the trend flips negative. The IOM's source_lineage (FRED PCE/BEA) and methodology_version are logged to the platform's decision-audit system for quarterly compliance review.

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For the business

A chief economist at a mid-market lender uses ADW-263 to calibrate consumer-loan origination volume targets. PCE is the broadest measure of consumer spending but its raw level is uninformative without trend context; ADW-263's score of 73.1 at the 74th percentile — still healthy but with a falling trend — tells the economist that spending momentum is past its peak and provides a quantified basis to recommend modestly tightening credit standards one quarter ahead of what the raw PCE series alone would suggest.

Forward outlook

Prediction

Horizon
Recommended use
Is US personal consumption accelerating?
Methodology

How it's built

recent vs trailing-mean % deviation, scaled (FRED PCE)

FRED (St. Louis Fed)

Version ADW-263-live-1.0 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: single headline print; this normalizes to momentum