73.1/ 100
Rising
US-Consumption
2016-05-01 10.2 yrs · 122 pts 2026-06-26
Top drivers
recent_valuetrailing_meandeviation_pct
⌁ mcp.call("adw-263") vADW-263-live-1.0 ← All products
Consumer/Spending · Index Gold
US Consumption Momentum
Is US personal consumption accelerating?
- Refresh
- monthly
- History
- 10.2 yrs
- Plan
- Gold
Use cases
What it unlocks
⌁
For an agent
A revenue-forecasting agent at a consumer-facing SaaS platform polls ADW-263 (US Consumption Momentum, FRED PCE) monthly. With the score at 73.1 (74th percentile, falling trend), the agent flags that personal consumption is still above its trailing mean but losing momentum, and automatically dials back the top-of-funnel expansion budget by 10% while preserving retention spend — acting before the trend flips negative. The IOM's source_lineage (FRED PCE/BEA) and methodology_version are logged to the platform's decision-audit system for quarterly compliance review.
📈
For the business
A chief economist at a mid-market lender uses ADW-263 to calibrate consumer-loan origination volume targets. PCE is the broadest measure of consumer spending but its raw level is uninformative without trend context; ADW-263's score of 73.1 at the 74th percentile — still healthy but with a falling trend — tells the economist that spending momentum is past its peak and provides a quantified basis to recommend modestly tightening credit standards one quarter ahead of what the raw PCE series alone would suggest.
Forward outlook
Prediction
- Horizon
- —
- Recommended use
- Is US personal consumption accelerating?
Methodology
How it's built
recent vs trailing-mean % deviation, scaled (FRED PCE)
FRED (St. Louis Fed)
Version ADW-263-live-1.0 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: single headline print; this normalizes to momentum
Live response
The object an agent receives
One call returns the answer with its reasoning attached — the live Intelligence Object for ADW-263.
GET /v1/intelligence/adw-263
{
"product_id": "ADW-263",
"entity": "US-Consumption",
"score": 73.1,
"trend": "rising",
"confidence": 0.6,
"top_drivers": [
{
"factor": "recent_value",
"contribution": 21926.07
},
{
"factor": "trailing_mean",
"contribution": 21430.02
},
{
"factor": "deviation_pct",
"contribution": 0.0231
}
],
"methodology_version": "ADW-263-live-1.0",
"freshness": "2026-06-26T23:00:18.814Z",
"coverage": "US personal consumption expenditures (FRED, monthly)",
"source_lineage": [
"api.stlouisfed.org/fred (PCE)"
],
"allowed_use": "evaluation, commercial",
"competitor_benchmark": "Headline PCE; this normalizes to recent trend",
"validation_status": "descriptive"
} IOM schema
The agent-callable contract
Every product conforms to the Intelligence Object Model — typed, versioned, and discoverable.
- product_id
- entity
- score
- trend
- confidence
- top_drivers
- prediction_horizon
- recommended_use
- methodology_version
- freshness
- coverage
- source_lineage
- allowed_use
MCP tool: adw.adw_263
Access options
Consume it your way
-
Dashboard
Read the score + drivers in the console.
-
REST API
/v1/intelligence/adw-263
-
MCP tool
adw.adw_263
-
Marketplace
Discoverable by any MCP agent via the MCP registry.
-
White-label
Embed under your own brand (Platinum).
Plan requirement
Depth scales with the plan
- Free Sample object — current score only
- Gold Full drivers + history + confidence
- Platinum White-label + bulk + SLA
Related products
Browse all Consumer/Credit · Index Paid
Consumer-Credit Stress Index
How stressed is US consumer credit right now — rising delinquencies or credit binging?
Method: z_delinq (0.6) + z_revolving_yoy (0.4); both z-scored vs trailing 36-period window → composite z → 0-100 (50=neutral, >50=stress rising)
monthly · next ~30d
View object → Consumer/Macro · Index Paid
Shopper-Impact / Discretionary Squeeze
Enables retailers and brands to time promotions and optimize assortment by quantifying the financial pressure on consumers' discretionary spending.
Method: YoY Core CPI vs YoY Avg Hourly Earnings divergence; z-score vs 36mo trailing window → 0-100 (50=neutral, >50=squeeze rising)
monthly · next ~30d
View object → Consumer/Brand · Index Paid
Aspiration Premium Index
Enables brands to distinguish whether their pricing power stems from emotional aspiration or functional utility to identify and mitigate pricing fragility.
Method: Apparel CPI YoY minus Core CPI YoY spread; z-scored vs 5yr history; mapped 0-100 (50=parity, >50=aspiration premium rising)
monthly · next ~30d
View object →