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Labor/Macro · Index Gold

Labor Market Tightness Score

How tight is the US labor market right now, and tightening or loosening?

Refresh
monthly
History
21.5 yrs
Plan
Gold
43.1/ 100
Stable

US-Labor

2005-01-01 21.5 yrs · 258 pts 2026-06-27

Top drivers

openings_to_unemployed_ratiojob_openings_thousandsunemployed_persons_thousands
⌁ mcp.call("adw-311") vADW-311-live-1.0
Use cases

What it unlocks

For an agent

A compensation-planning agent monitors ADW-311 monthly and, when the score crosses above 70 on a rising trend (current: 43.1, 74th percentile, up 288% over its backtest life), it automatically flags open requisitions in high-competition skill clusters for a 5–10% salary-band uplift and routes an alert to the CHRO with the top_drivers field detailing whether the tightness is driven by opening-side surge or unemployment-side collapse. The IOM's source_lineage (JOLTS + CPS, BLS keyless) and methodology_version let the agent log a compliant audit trail—critical for pay-equity reviews and board-level compensation committee filings.

📈

For the business

A CFO preparing a three-year workforce-cost forecast uses ADW-311 to benchmark wage-pressure assumptions against the actual openings-to-unemployed ratio, which has historically ranged from 0 (2020 trough) to 100 (2022 peak) on a 0.30–2.00 floor/ceiling normalization. Rather than relying on lagged BLS summaries that arrive weeks after close, the monthly refreshed IOM lets the finance team see tightness trending in real time and stress-test labor-line scenarios before board presentations—replacing a manual download-and-Excel process that previously took two analysts a full day each quarter.

Forward outlook

Prediction

Horizon
Recommended use
Gauge US labor market tightness for hiring-environment assessment, wage-pressure signaling, and macro regime detection. Higher score = fewer unemployed workers per opening = tighter market = stronger worker bargaining power. Not a trade signal. Descriptive index only.
Methodology

How it's built

openings/unemployed ratio normalized 0-100 (0.30 floor=2020 trough, 2.00 ceil=2022 peak)

Version ADW-311-live-1.0 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: Indeed Hiring Lab; Conference Board HWOL