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Energy/Regulatory · Index Gold

Energy Regulatory Exposure Index

How elevated are US commercial energy prices vs historical norms?

Refresh
weekly
History
30.7 yrs
Plan
Gold
73.5/ 100
Rising

US

1995-11-01 30.7 yrs · 368 pts 2026-06-27

Top drivers

gas_price_zscoregas_price_recent_avg_usd_mcf
⌁ mcp.call("adw-313") vADW-313-live-1.0
Use cases

What it unlocks

For an agent

An energy-procurement automation agent checks ADW-313 weekly and, when the score exceeds 65 on a rising trend (current: 73.5, which is the first and only observation so far, so the agent uses confidence from the enriched tier to gate action), it triggers an RFP process for 12-month fixed-rate electricity and natural gas contracts and posts a recommendation memo to the procurement platform, citing the IOM's top_drivers to specify which leg—commercial electricity (60% weight) or natural gas (40%)—is the primary cost driver. The methodology_version ensures the z-score baseline period is consistent across contract renewal cycles so the agent isn't comparing apples to oranges across years.

📈

For the business

A CFO at a mid-size manufacturer uses ADW-313 to quantify energy-price exposure relative to the 36-month trailing baseline rather than relying on spot-price headlines, which obscure whether current rates are historically unusual. A score of 73.5—deep in the upper quartile of possible readings—gives the CFO a single, sourced number to anchor the board-level conversation about hedging strategy, replacing a fragmented monthly review of EIA tables that required manual z-score calculations and produced inconsistent period comparisons across finance team members.

Forward outlook

Prediction

Horizon
Recommended use
Gauge US commercial energy price elevation relative to trailing baseline. Rising score → utilities are winning rate cases, capacity markets are tight, or supply shocks are passing through — all forms of heightened regulatory exposure. Use as a leading cost-pressure signal for energy-intensive sectors.
Methodology

How it's built

z-score elec(0.6)+gas(0.4); sub=clamp(50+z*15,0,100)

Version ADW-313-live-1.0 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: BloombergNEF Energy Regulatory; Wood Mackenzie