Energy Regulatory Exposure Index →

{
  "product_id": "ADW-313",
  "entity": "US",
  "score": 73.5,
  "trend": "rising",
  "confidence": 0.55,
  "top_drivers": [
    {
      "factor": "gas_price_zscore",
      "contribution": 1.567
    },
    {
      "factor": "gas_price_recent_avg_usd_mcf",
      "contribution": 12.01
    }
  ],
  "recommended_use": "Gauge US commercial energy price elevation relative to trailing baseline. Rising score → utilities are winning rate cases, capacity markets are tight, or supply shocks are passing through — all forms of heightened regulatory exposure. Use as a leading cost-pressure signal for energy-intensive sectors.",
  "methodology_version": "ADW-313-live-1.0",
  "freshness": "2026-06-27T03:00:32.377Z",
  "coverage": "US commercial electricity retail price (EIA, national) + US commercial natural gas price (EIA, national), trailing 36 months",
  "source_lineage": [
    "api.eia.gov/v2/electricity/retail-sales (EIA_API_KEY — commercial sector, US national)",
    "api.eia.gov/v2/natural-gas/pri/sum (EIA_API_KEY — commercial sector PCS, NUS)"
  ],
  "allowed_use": "informational",
  "validation_status": "descriptive",
  "elec_price_sub_score": null,
  "gas_price_sub_score": 73.5,
  "elec_price_z": null,
  "gas_price_z": 1.567,
  "elec_price_recent_avg_cents_kwh": null,
  "elec_price_baseline_avg_cents_kwh": null,
  "elec_price_latest_period": null,
  "elec_price_latest_cents_kwh": null,
  "gas_price_recent_avg_usd_mcf": 12.01,
  "gas_price_baseline_avg_usd_mcf": 10.767,
  "gas_price_latest_period": "2026-03",
  "gas_price_latest_usd_mcf": 12.34,
  "n_elec_periods": null,
  "n_gas_periods": 36,
  "score_weight_note": "100% commercial gas price (electricity price series unavailable)",
  "methodology_note": "Sub-score = clamp(50 + z × 15, 0, 100) where z = (recent_3mo_avg − baseline_avg) / baseline_stddev. Baseline = months 4–36 (excludes the current 3-month window). ±1σ = ±15 pts from 50; ±3σ spans 0–100. EIA retail-sales data lags ~30–60 days (publication cycle). Score reflects price elevation vs. own history, not absolute price level."
}