Skip to content
AlpineDataWorks.AI
← All products
Industry/Capex · Index Gold

Infrastructure Investment Velocity

Is US infrastructure investment accelerating or contracting relative to trend?

Refresh
monthly
History
10.5 yrs
Plan
Gold
54.2/ 100
Stable

US

2016-01-01 10.5 yrs · 127 pts 2026-06-27

Top drivers

total_construction_yoy_pcttotal_construction_mom3_pcttotal_spending_latest_usd_m
⌁ mcp.call("adw-314") vADW-314-live-1.0
Use cases

What it unlocks

For an agent

A construction-sector investment research agent polls ADW-314 monthly and, when the score drops below 50 on a falling trend (current: 54.2, 17th percentile, down 18.3% from the 2016 start and falling), it automatically downweights infrastructure-linked equity positions in a model portfolio and appends the top_drivers field—which separates total-construction momentum from public-spend momentum—to a research note explaining whether private or government spending is the drag. Source_lineage back to Census VIP via the FRED mirror means the agent can cite the primary government data release rather than a derived vendor estimate, satisfying compliance requirements for investment rationale.

📈

For the business

A VP of Corporate Strategy at a building-materials company uses ADW-314 to track whether the IIJA (Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act) spending is actually showing up in construction-put-in-place figures or is still stuck in project-approval pipelines. The current 17th-percentile reading—the lowest in a decade of backtest history—tells the leadership team that velocity is contracting even against a moderate baseline, supporting a decision to defer capacity expansion capex rather than commit to a new production facility ahead of demand materializing.

Forward outlook

Prediction

Horizon
Recommended use
Gauge whether US infrastructure investment is accelerating or decelerating vs. its own trend. Score > 55 = investment is running above trend (positive tailwind for materials, construction equipment, REITs); score < 45 = spending is contracting. Use as a capex-cycle leading indicator for sector allocation. Data lags ~1-2 months (Census VIP publication cycle).
Methodology

How it's built

0.5*total + 0.5*public; sub=clamp(50+YoY%*2.0+3m-mom%*1.5,0,100)

Version ADW-314-live-1.0 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: Dodge Construction (paid); ENR (paid)