Infrastructure Investment Velocity →

{
  "product_id": "ADW-314",
  "entity": "US",
  "score": 54.2,
  "trend": "stable",
  "confidence": 0.74,
  "top_drivers": [
    {
      "factor": "total_construction_yoy_pct",
      "contribution": 0.88
    },
    {
      "factor": "total_construction_mom3_pct",
      "contribution": -1.24
    },
    {
      "factor": "total_spending_latest_usd_m",
      "contribution": 2172397
    },
    {
      "factor": "public_construction_yoy_pct",
      "contribution": 3.67
    },
    {
      "factor": "public_construction_mom3_pct",
      "contribution": 0.68
    },
    {
      "factor": "public_spending_latest_usd_m",
      "contribution": 532728
    }
  ],
  "recommended_use": "Gauge whether US infrastructure investment is accelerating or decelerating vs. its own trend. Score > 55 = investment is running above trend (positive tailwind for materials, construction equipment, REITs); score < 45 = spending is contracting. Use as a capex-cycle leading indicator for sector allocation. Data lags ~1-2 months (Census VIP publication cycle).",
  "methodology_version": "ADW-314-live-1.0",
  "freshness": "2026-06-27T03:00:27.602Z",
  "coverage": "US Total Construction Spending (TTLCONS) + Total Public Construction Spending (TLPBLCONS); both from US Census Bureau Value of Construction Put in Place (C30/VIP), served via FRED; seasonally adjusted annual rate, monthly from 1993-01",
  "source_lineage": [
    "fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=TTLCONS (keyless; canonical source = US Census Bureau VIP survey, C30 release)",
    "fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=TLPBLCONS (keyless; canonical source = US Census Bureau VIP survey, public-sector component)"
  ],
  "allowed_use": "informational",
  "validation_status": "descriptive",
  "total_construction_sub_score": 49.9,
  "public_construction_sub_score": 58.4,
  "total_construction_yoy_pct": 0.88,
  "total_construction_mom3_pct": -1.24,
  "total_spending_latest_usd_m": 2172397,
  "total_spending_latest_period": "2026-04-01",
  "public_construction_yoy_pct": 3.67,
  "public_construction_mom3_pct": 0.68,
  "public_spending_latest_usd_m": 532728,
  "public_spending_latest_period": "2026-04-01",
  "n_total_periods": 400,
  "n_public_periods": 400,
  "score_weight_note": "50% total construction velocity, 50% public construction velocity",
  "methodology_note": "sub_score = clamp(50 + YoY% × 2.0 + 3m-mom% × 1.5, 0, 100). YoY = latest month vs same month 12 months prior (Census SAAR series, seasonally adjusted, so direct comparison is valid). 3-month momentum = avg(last 3) vs avg(prior 3). Calibration: ±20% YoY shifts score ±40 pts; ±10% short-term momentum shifts ±15 pts. Final score = simple average of total and public sub-scores (equal weight). Census VIP publication lag is typically 4-6 weeks after reference month end.",
  "data_lag_note": "Census Value of Construction Put in Place (C30) publishes ~4-6 weeks after the reference month. The latest data point is therefore typically 5-7 weeks old at time of fetch."
}