Transport/Regulatory · Index Paid

US Freight Regulatory Risk Index

Is US freight activity elevated vs baseline (carrier utilization / regulatory demand)?

Refresh: monthly
History: 26.2 yrs
Plan: Paid

85.6/ 100

Rising

2000-05-01 26.2 yrs · 316 pts 2026-06-27

Top drivers

tsi_freight_recent_avgtsi_freight_vs_baseline_ztruck_tonnage_recent_avg

⌁ mcp.call("adw-335") vADW-335-live-1.0

Use cases

What it unlocks

⌁

For an agent

A freight-logistics pricing agent checks ADW-335 monthly and, when the score rises above 80 on a rising trend (current: 85.6, 96th percentile of its 315-observation backtest—up 328% from the year-2000 baseline), it automatically increases dynamic surcharge rates on spot load boards by a calibrated percentage and routes a capacity-alert to regional dispatch, using the top_drivers field to determine whether to prioritize over-the-road (ATA tonnage leg) or border-crossing (cross-border truck leg) capacity. The source_lineage to BTS Transportation Services Index and ATA data lets the agent explain rate adjustments to shippers with citable government authority rather than proprietary black-box logic.

📈

For the business

A supply-chain director at a retailer with high freight spend uses ADW-335 to time contract renegotiations with carriers: a score at the 96th percentile signals the market is near peak carrier utilization, meaning locking in a multi-quarter contract now—before spot rates spike further—avoids paying the premium a tighter market will demand. Historically, the index ranged from 0 to 93.2 across 25 years of data; the current reading of 85.6 is among the most elevated ever recorded, giving the supply-chain team a defensible quantitative basis to escalate the contracting decision to the CFO rather than relying on anecdotal trucker conversations.

Forward outlook

Prediction

Horizon: —
Recommended use: Monitor freight-sector regulatory exposure; proxy for carrier utilisation pressure, HOS compliance costs, and cross-border trade-dependent regulatory demand. Descriptive index — not a rate or capacity forecast.

Methodology

How it's built

recent-3mo vs trailing baseline z-score, weighted 45/35/20 -> 0-100

Version ADW-335-live-1.0 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: FreightWaves SONAR; DAT load-to-truck; ATA tonnage

Live response

The object an agent receives

One call returns the answer with its reasoning attached — the live Intelligence Object for ADW-335.

GET /v1/intelligence/adw-335

{
  "product_id": "ADW-335",
  "entity": "US",
  "score": 85.6,
  "trend": "rising",
  "confidence": 0.82,
  "top_drivers": [
    {
      "factor": "tsi_freight_recent_avg",
      "contribution": 139.1
    },
    {
      "factor": "tsi_freight_vs_baseline_z",
      "contribution": 2.334
    },
    {
      "factor": "truck_tonnage_recent_avg",
      "contribution": 116.97
    },
    {
      "factor": "truck_tonnage_vs_baseline_z",
      "contribution": 5.294
    },
    {
      "factor": "border_truck_crossings_recent_avg",
      "contribution": 1100051
    },
    {
      "factor": "border_crossings_vs_baseline_z",
      "contribution": 0.77
    }
  ],
  "recommended_use": "Monitor freight-sector regulatory exposure; proxy for carrier utilisation pressure, HOS compliance costs, and cross-border trade-dependent regulatory demand. Descriptive index — not a rate or capacity forecast.",
  "methodology_version": "ADW-335-live-1.0",
  "freshness": "2026-06-27T04:00:12.808Z",
  "coverage": "US multimodal freight system: truck, rail, air, waterborne, pipeline (TSI-F); for-hire truck tonnage (ATA); CBP land-port truck crossings US-MX + US-CA. Monthly cadence, BTS publication lag ~4-6 weeks.",
  "source_lineage": [
    "BTS Monthly Transportation Statistics (crem-w557) — Transportation Services Index Freight (keyless Socrata)",
    "BTS Monthly Transportation Statistics (crem-w557) — ATA Truck Tonnage Index (keyless Socrata)",
    "BTS Monthly Transportation Statistics (crem-w557) — CBP Cross-Border Truck Crossings US-MX + US-CA (keyless Socrata)"
  ],
  "allowed_use": "informational",
  "validation_status": "descriptive",
  "tsi_freight_latest": "139.6 (2026-04-01)",
  "truck_tonnage_latest": "117.7 (2026-04-01)",
  "border_truck_crossings_latest": "1,077,963 trucks (2026-05-01)",
  "tsi_freight_sub_score": 85,
  "truck_tonnage_sub_score": 100,
  "border_crossings_sub_score": 61.5,
  "series_available": 3,
  "next_expected_refresh": "2026-07-01",
  "data_lag_note": "BTS MTS publication lag ~4-6 weeks after reference month; latest 1-2 rows may be partial (missing sub-series)."
}

IOM schema

The agent-callable contract

Every product conforms to the Intelligence Object Model — typed, versioned, and discoverable.

product_id
entity
score
trend
confidence
top_drivers
prediction_horizon
recommended_use
methodology_version
freshness
coverage
source_lineage
allowed_use

MCP tool: adw.adw_335

Access options

Consume it your way

Dashboard
Read the score + drivers in the console.
REST API
/v1/intelligence/adw-335
MCP tool
adw.adw_335
Marketplace
Discoverable by any MCP agent via the MCP registry.
White-label
Embed under your own brand (Platinum).

Plan requirement

Depth scales with the plan

Free Sample object — current score only
Gold Full drivers + history + confidence
Platinum White-label + bulk + SLA

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Call ADW-335 in one request.

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US Freight Regulatory Risk Index →