Labor Market Cooling Signal →

{
  "product_id": "ADW-348",
  "entity": "US-Labor",
  "score": 49.3,
  "trend": "stable",
  "confidence": 0.76,
  "top_drivers": [
    {
      "factor": "unrate_3mo_delta_pp",
      "contribution": -0.033
    },
    {
      "factor": "unrate_latest_pct",
      "contribution": 4.3
    },
    {
      "factor": "unrate_sub_signal",
      "contribution": 0.17
    },
    {
      "factor": "icsa_yoy_chg_pct",
      "contribution": -7.43
    },
    {
      "factor": "icsa_4wk_avg_k",
      "contribution": 224.3
    },
    {
      "factor": "icsa_sub_signal",
      "contribution": 0.3514
    },
    {
      "factor": "quits_rate_3mo_delta_pp",
      "contribution": -0.067
    },
    {
      "factor": "quits_rate_latest_pct",
      "contribution": 1.9
    },
    {
      "factor": "quits_sub_signal",
      "contribution": 0.835
    },
    {
      "factor": "hires_rate_3mo_delta_pp",
      "contribution": -0.044
    },
    {
      "factor": "hires_rate_latest_pct",
      "contribution": 3.2
    },
    {
      "factor": "hires_sub_signal",
      "contribution": 0.852
    }
  ],
  "recommended_use": "Gauge the MOMENTUM and DIRECTION of US labor-market deterioration, not the absolute level of tightness (see ADW-311 for that). Score 50 = neutral/no momentum; score 70+ = multi-signal cooling acceleration (rising unemployment trend, claims climbing, fewer workers quitting, employers pulling back hiring); score 30 or below = labor market actually re-tightening. Useful for: recession timing signals, Fed rate-decision context, consumer-spending drag forecasting, sector-rotation into defensives. Data lags: UNRATE/JOLTS ~3-6 weeks; ICSA weekly (most current).",
  "methodology_version": "ADW-348-live-1.0",
  "freshness": "2026-06-27T04:00:12.918Z",
  "coverage": "FRED UNRATE: BLS Current Population Survey, unemployment rate %, SA, monthly 1948-present. FRED ICSA: DOL Unemployment Insurance initial jobless claims, weekly SA, thousands, 1967-present. FRED JTSQUR: BLS JOLTS Quits Rate %, SA, monthly 2000-present. FRED JTSHIR: BLS JOLTS Hires Rate %, SA, monthly 2000-present. All served via FRED keyless fredgraph.csv endpoint (no API key required).",
  "source_lineage": [
    "fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=UNRATE (keyless; canonical source = BLS CPS monthly unemployment rate, SA)",
    "fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=ICSA (keyless; canonical source = DOL Employment & Training Administration, weekly initial claims, SA)",
    "fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=JTSQUR (keyless; canonical source = BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, quits rate, SA)",
    "fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=JTSHIR (keyless; canonical source = BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, hires rate, SA)"
  ],
  "allowed_use": "informational",
  "validation_status": "descriptive",
  "unrate_sub_signal": 0.17,
  "unrate_latest_pct": 4.3,
  "unrate_baseline_pct": 4.333,
  "unrate_3mo_delta_pp": -0.033,
  "unrate_latest_period": "2026-05-01",
  "unrate_n_points": 940,
  "icsa_sub_signal": 0.3514,
  "icsa_4wk_avg_latest_k": 224.3,
  "icsa_4wk_avg_yoy_k": 242.3,
  "icsa_yoy_chg_pct": -7.43,
  "icsa_latest_period": "2026-06-20",
  "icsa_n_points": 3103,
  "quits_sub_signal": 0.835,
  "quits_rate_latest_pct": 1.9,
  "quits_rate_baseline_pct": 2,
  "quits_rate_3mo_delta_pp": -0.067,
  "quits_rate_latest_period": "2026-04-01",
  "quits_n_points": 305,
  "hires_sub_signal": 0.852,
  "hires_rate_latest_pct": 3.2,
  "hires_rate_baseline_pct": 3.311,
  "hires_rate_3mo_delta_pp": -0.044,
  "hires_rate_latest_period": "2026-04-01",
  "hires_n_points": 305,
  "n_series_live": 4,
  "weight_note": "UNRATE 30% / ICSA 30% / JTSQUR 25% / JTSHIR 15% (nominal); actual: proportional redistribution among 4 live series",
  "methodology_note": "HIGHER score = MORE cooling/deterioration. Each sub-signal mapped to [0,1]: UNRATE: 0.5 + Δu_pp×10 (Δu = 3-mo avg minus 9-mo baseline; +0.05pp → +0.5); ICSA: 0.5 + YoY_ratio×2.0 (YoY = latest 4wk avg vs same 4 weeks 52wk prior; +10% → 0.70); JTSQUR: 0.5 − Δq_pp×5 (INVERTED; −0.1pp fall → 0.70; saturates at −0.4pp); JTSHIR: 0.5 − Δh_pp×8 (INVERTED; −0.1pp fall → 0.70; saturates at −0.38pp). Composite = weighted avg of sub-signals × 100. Distinct from ADW-311 (Labor Tightness Level): 311 answers 'how tight?' via openings/unemployed ratio; 348 answers 'is it getting worse?' via momentum direction.",
  "data_lag_note": "ICSA is most current (weekly, published Thursdays for prior week). UNRATE lags ~3-4 weeks after reference month. JTSQUR/JTSHIR (JOLTS) lag ~6 weeks after reference month. The composite reflects each series at its own latest available observation.",
  "adw311_relationship": "Complementary pair: ADW-311 (Labor Tightness Level) measures job-openings/unemployed ratio — the ABSOLUTE state of slack. ADW-348 (this signal) measures MOMENTUM direction — whether conditions are deteriorating regardless of the current level. Use together: ADW-311 high + ADW-348 high = still-tight market that is cooling fast (early-cycle peak). ADW-311 low + ADW-348 high = already-weak market still getting worse (late-cycle risk)."
}