Supply Chain Geopolitical Risk Index →

A supply-chain risk orchestration agent polls ADW-354 monthly and, when the geopolitical risk score rises above 55 on a rising trend (122-observation backtest: range 36.1–93.4, mean 70.7; current 42.0 at the 3rd percentile—historically low and falling), it evaluates whether the low reading is driven by China trade-share normalization (40% weight) or a temporary import-flow decline (30% weight) using top_drivers, then either holds diversification posture steady or escalates a supplier-audit trigger to the procurement team. The methodology_version and source_lineage (FRED/BEA bilateral trade data) let the agent distinguish signal from noise and satisfy ESG/supply-chain-due-diligence reporting requirements without manual analyst intervention.

A Chief Procurement Officer at a manufacturer with significant China-sourced inputs uses ADW-354 to quantify whether recent nearshoring initiatives are actually reducing geopolitical trade concentration or merely appearing to because of cyclical import slowdowns. The current score of 42.0 is at the 3rd percentile of a 10-year history that has ranged as high as 93.4—meaning conditions look unusually favorable on paper—but the falling trend against a mean of 70.7 prompts the CPO to interrogate whether the improvement reflects structural diversification or just a demand trough, using the IOM's imbalance sub-component (10% weight) to stress-test the conclusion before locking in long-term sole-source agreements.