Supply Chain Geopolitical Risk Index →

{
  "product_id": "ADW-354",
  "entity": "US",
  "score": 42,
  "trend": "improving",
  "confidence": 0.82,
  "top_drivers": [
    {
      "factor": "china_import_share_of_basket_pct",
      "contribution": 17.4
    },
    {
      "factor": "china_import_trend_z",
      "contribution": -1.111
    },
    {
      "factor": "china_import_export_ratio",
      "contribution": 2.1
    },
    {
      "factor": "trade_balance_stress_z",
      "contribution": 0.618
    }
  ],
  "recommended_use": "Track US supply-chain exposure to geopolitically sensitive trade partners. A rising score signals growing import concentration in China or broader bilateral trade asymmetry. Not a market signal — use alongside tariff, sanctions, and logistics risk data for decision-grade supply-chain analysis. Data lags BEA publication cycle (~5-6 weeks after month-end).",
  "methodology_version": "ADW-354-live-1.0",
  "freshness": "2026-06-27T04:00:14.901Z",
  "coverage": "US bilateral goods trade with China, Mexico, Canada, and South Korea (FRED/BEA series, monthly NSA) + US overall goods & services trade balance (BEA/BOP).",
  "source_lineage": [
    "FRED/BEA IMPCH — US Imports of Goods from China (keyless)",
    "FRED/BEA EXPCH — US Exports of Goods to China (keyless)",
    "FRED/BEA IMPMX — US Imports of Goods from Mexico (keyless)",
    "FRED/BEA IMPCA — US Imports of Goods from Canada (keyless)",
    "FRED/BEA IMPKR — US Imports of Goods from South Korea (keyless)",
    "FRED/BEA BOPGSTB — US Trade Balance in Goods and Services (keyless)"
  ],
  "allowed_use": "informational",
  "pivot_note": "US Census intltrade API (api.census.gov/data/timeseries/intltrade) evaluated but returned no data without a Census API key. Pivoted to FRED/BEA, which publishes the same underlying BEA bilateral trade data keyless.",
  "validation_status": "descriptive",
  "china_share_of_basket_pct": 17.4,
  "concentration_date": "2026-04-01",
  "china_concentration_sub_score": 45.8,
  "china_import_trend_sub_score": 33.3,
  "trade_balance_stress_sub_score": 40.7,
  "bilateral_imbalance_sub_score": 55,
  "china_import_export_ratio": 2.1,
  "latest_imports_china_usd_b": 19.79,
  "latest_imports_mexico_usd_b": 50.69,
  "latest_imports_canada_usd_b": 35.03,
  "latest_imports_skorea_usd_b": 13.56,
  "latest_exports_china_usd_b": 9.4,
  "latest_trade_balance_usd_b": -55.88,
  "latest_data_date": "2026-04-01",
  "active_components": 4,
  "total_components": 4,
  "data_lag_note": "BEA bilateral trade data published ~5-6 weeks after month-end. Most recent FRED row typically lags 1-2 calendar months."
}