Raw Material Production Stress Indicator →

{
  "product_id": "ADW-355",
  "entity": "US",
  "score": 67.8,
  "trend": "stress-rising",
  "confidence": 0.78,
  "top_drivers": [
    {
      "factor": "ip_materials_yoy_pct",
      "contribution": 1.86
    },
    {
      "factor": "ip_materials_mom3_pct",
      "contribution": 0.57
    },
    {
      "factor": "ip_mining_yoy_pct",
      "contribution": 1.98
    },
    {
      "factor": "ip_mining_mom3_pct",
      "contribution": 0.34
    },
    {
      "factor": "ppi_industrial_yoy_pct",
      "contribution": 15.36
    },
    {
      "factor": "ppi_industrial_mom3_pct",
      "contribution": 8.15
    },
    {
      "factor": "ppi_metals_yoy_pct",
      "contribution": 15.45
    },
    {
      "factor": "ppi_metals_mom3_pct",
      "contribution": 4.11
    }
  ],
  "recommended_use": "Gauge stress in US raw-material production. Score > 60 = elevated supply-chain risk / input-cost pressure (flag for commodity-sensitive sectors: autos, aerospace, construction materials, packaging). Score < 40 = ample supply and subdued input prices. Use alongside demand-side indicators to distinguish supply-push from demand-pull inflation. Data lags ~4-6 weeks (FRB G.17 + BLS PPI publication cycles).",
  "methodology_version": "ADW-355-live-1.0",
  "freshness": "2026-06-27T04:00:14.750Z",
  "coverage": "Federal Reserve Board G.17 Industrial Production (IPMAT, IPMINE) + BLS Producer Price Index (PPIIDC, WPU10); all served via FRED keyless CSV; monthly frequency; IPMAT/IPMINE from 1939/1919; PPIIDC/WPU10 from 1913/1926",
  "source_lineage": [
    "fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=IPMAT  (keyless; FRB G.17, IP Materials, SA index 2017=100)",
    "fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=IPMINE (keyless; FRB G.17, IP Mining, SA index 2017=100)",
    "fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=PPIIDC (keyless; BLS PPI, Industrial Commodities, NSA index 1982=100)",
    "fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=WPU10  (keyless; BLS PPI, Metals & Metal Products, NSA index 1982=100)"
  ],
  "allowed_use": "informational",
  "validation_status": "descriptive",
  "output_leg_score": 45.5,
  "ip_materials_sub_score": 45.4,
  "ip_materials_yoy_pct": 1.86,
  "ip_materials_mom3_pct": 0.57,
  "ip_materials_latest_value": 107.5072,
  "ip_materials_latest_period": "2026-05-01",
  "ip_materials_n_points": 1049,
  "ip_mining_sub_score": 45.5,
  "ip_mining_yoy_pct": 1.98,
  "ip_mining_mom3_pct": 0.34,
  "ip_mining_latest_value": 122.8739,
  "ip_mining_latest_period": "2026-05-01",
  "ip_mining_n_points": 1289,
  "price_leg_score": 90,
  "ppi_industrial_sub_score": 92.9,
  "ppi_industrial_yoy_pct": 15.36,
  "ppi_industrial_mom3_pct": 8.15,
  "ppi_industrial_latest_value": 297.108,
  "ppi_industrial_latest_period": "2026-05-01",
  "ppi_industrial_n_points": 1361,
  "ppi_metals_sub_score": 87.1,
  "ppi_metals_yoy_pct": 15.45,
  "ppi_metals_mom3_pct": 4.11,
  "ppi_metals_latest_value": 380.938,
  "ppi_metals_latest_period": "2026-05-01",
  "ppi_metals_n_points": 1205,
  "series_available": 4,
  "score_weight_note": "50% output leg (50% IPMAT + 50% IPMINE), 50% price leg (50% PPIIDC + 50% WPU10)",
  "methodology_note": "Output sub-score = clamp(50 − YoY% × 2.0 − 3m-mom% × 1.5, 0, 100) — falling output raises stress. Price sub-score = clamp(50 + YoY% × 2.0 + 3m-mom% × 1.5, 0, 100) — rising prices raise stress. Final score = simple average of output leg and price leg (each leg = equal-weighted average of its two series). Calibration: ±20% YoY shifts a sub-score ±40 pts; ±10% 3m-momentum shifts ±15 pts. FRB G.17 releases ~15th of the following month; BLS PPI releases ~2 weeks after month end.",
  "data_lag_note": "IPMAT/IPMINE: FRB G.17 publishes ~15th of the month following the reference period (~6 wks lag). PPIIDC/WPU10: BLS PPI releases ~2nd week of the month following reference period (~6 wks lag). Both series are available via FRED on the same day as the primary agency release."
}