Food Security Price Shock Index →

{
  "product_id": "ADW-382",
  "entity": "Global/US",
  "score": 76.7,
  "trend": "shock-accelerating",
  "confidence": 0.76,
  "top_drivers": [
    {
      "factor": "global_food_price_yoy_pct",
      "contribution": 30.23
    },
    {
      "factor": "global_food_price_mom3_pct",
      "contribution": 11.09
    },
    {
      "factor": "us_food_cpi_yoy_pct",
      "contribution": 3.38
    },
    {
      "factor": "us_food_cpi_mom3_pct",
      "contribution": 0.71
    },
    {
      "factor": "farm_ppi_yoy_pct",
      "contribution": 6.22
    },
    {
      "factor": "farm_ppi_mom3_pct",
      "contribution": 5.56
    }
  ],
  "recommended_use": "Gauge food-price shock severity across global commodity markets and US consumers. Score > 65 = acute food price shock: flag for food-company input-cost pressure, consumer-staples margin compression, food-insecurity risk in lower-income demographics, and social/political risk in net-food-importing countries. Score < 35 = benign food price environment; favorable for consumer purchasing power and food-sector margins. WPU01 (farm PPI) provides 2-4 month lead signal for future consumer food price moves. Data lags ~6 weeks (BLS + NY Fed release cycles); PFOODINDEXM typically 4-6 weeks; WPU01 ~2 weeks.",
  "methodology_version": "ADW-382-live-1.0",
  "freshness": "2026-06-27T04:00:20.733Z",
  "coverage": "IMF Primary Commodity Prices (PFOODINDEXM, via FRED, monthly from 1992) + BLS CPI Food at Home (CPIUFDSL, via FRED, monthly from 1947, SA) + BLS PPI Farm Products (WPU01, via FRED, monthly from 1926, NSA); all series served via FRED keyless CSV endpoint",
  "source_lineage": [
    "fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=PFOODINDEXM (keyless; IMF Primary Commodity Prices, NSA index 2016=100)",
    "fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=CPIUFDSL    (keyless; BLS CPI Food at Home, SA index 1982-84=100)",
    "fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=WPU01       (keyless; BLS PPI Farm Products, NSA index 1982=100)"
  ],
  "allowed_use": "informational",
  "validation_status": "descriptive",
  "global_food_sub_score": 100,
  "global_food_yoy_pct": 30.23,
  "global_food_mom3_pct": 11.09,
  "global_food_latest_value": 162.5796,
  "global_food_latest_period": "2026-06-01",
  "global_food_n_points": 414,
  "us_food_cpi_sub_score": 56.5,
  "us_food_cpi_yoy_pct": 3.38,
  "us_food_cpi_mom3_pct": 0.71,
  "us_food_cpi_latest_value": 348.892,
  "us_food_cpi_latest_period": "2026-05-01",
  "us_food_cpi_n_points": 952,
  "farm_ppi_sub_score": 70.4,
  "farm_ppi_yoy_pct": 6.22,
  "farm_ppi_mom3_pct": 5.56,
  "farm_ppi_latest_value": 251.573,
  "farm_ppi_latest_period": "2026-05-01",
  "farm_ppi_n_points": 1361,
  "series_available": 3,
  "score_weight_note": "40% GLOBAL + 40% US + 20% FARM",
  "methodology_note": "All three sub-scores use identical formula: sub_score = clamp(50 + YoY% × 1.5 + 3m-mom% × 2.0, 0, 100). Rising food prices (positive YoY/MoM) push sub-score above 50; falling prices push it below 50. Nominal composite weights: PFOODINDEXM 40%, CPIUFDSL 40%, WPU01 20%; redistributed proportionally if a series is unavailable. Calibration: +20% YoY food shock → +30 pts to that sub-score; +10% 3m-momentum → +20 pts. WPU01 (farm PPI) acts as a 2-4 month leading indicator for consumer food prices.",
  "data_lag_note": "PFOODINDEXM: IMF releases ~4-6 weeks after reference month; available via FRED on release day. CPIUFDSL: BLS CPI releases ~2nd week of the following month (~6 wks lag). WPU01: BLS PPI releases ~2nd week of the following month; one of the faster series."
}