Name: Corporate Credit-Spread Stress Index
Brand: AlpineDataWorks.AI
SKU: ADW-046
Availability: InStock

Use cases

What it unlocks

⌁

For an agent

A fixed-income risk agent monitors ADW-046 weekly; when the credit_spread_stress_score rises above 55 (it peaked at 81.8 during its history and currently sits at 38.4, 41st percentile on a falling trend) and the composite_z of the BAA spread and HY OAS moves in the same direction, the agent automatically reduces high-yield allocation in a model portfolio, logs the baa_spread_pct and hy_oas_bp values for position-level attribution, and holds the action if confidence is below 0.75 — the 130-observation z-score window pinned in methodology_version prevents false signals from short-window noise.

📈

For the business

A corporate treasurer at an investment-grade issuer uses ADW-046's spread_stress_label and composite_z to decide whether to execute a bond offering now or wait: when the score was near its historical peak of 81.8, spreads were historically wide enough to make new issuance prohibitively expensive; at today's 38.4 reading the IOM signals benign credit conditions, supporting a decision to bring forward a planned refinancing — a judgment that previously required manually pulling FRED spread series and computing trailing z-scores in Bloomberg.

Forward outlook

Prediction

Horizon: —
Recommended use: Gauge corporate credit stress. High score = wide spreads, credit risk elevated. Descriptive; daily lag is minimal.

Methodology

How it's built

z_baa (0.5) + z_hy_oas (0.5); both z-scored vs trailing 130-observation window → composite z → 0-100 (50=neutral, >50=spreads wider than hist avg)

FRED (BAA10Y, BAMLH0A0HYM2)

Version ADW-046-live-1.0 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: Bloomberg credit indices (paid)

Live response

The object an agent receives

One call returns the answer with its reasoning attached — the live Intelligence Object for ADW-046.

GET /v1/intelligence/adw-046

{
  "product_id": "ADW-046",
  "entity": "US corporate credit markets",
  "score": 39.6,
  "trend": "spreads-tightening",
  "confidence": 0.87,
  "top_drivers": [
    {
      "factor": "baa_spread_z",
      "contribution": -0.757
    },
    {
      "factor": "hy_oas_z",
      "contribution": -0.279
    }
  ],
  "recommended_use": "Gauge corporate credit stress. High score = wide spreads, credit risk elevated. Descriptive; daily lag is minimal.",
  "methodology_version": "ADW-046-live-1.0",
  "freshness": "2026-06-27T06:00:17.615Z",
  "coverage": "US corporate credit (FRED BAA10Y + BAMLH0A0HYM2)",
  "source_lineage": [
    "FRED BAA10Y (Moody's BAA Corporate Spread)",
    "FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2 (ICE BofA HY OAS)"
  ],
  "allowed_use": "informational",
  "credit_spread_stress_score": 39.6,
  "spread_stress_label": "normal",
  "baa_spread_pct": 1.54,
  "baa_spread_z": -1.515,
  "hy_oas_bp": 2.8,
  "hy_oas_z": -0.558,
  "composite_z": -1.036,
  "validation_status": "descriptive"
}

IOM schema