55.4/ 100
Stable
US inflation expectations vs realized
2016-05-01 10.2 yrs · 123 pts 2026-06-26
Top drivers
breakeven_inflation_pctcore_cpi_yoy_pctdivergence_pct
⌁ mcp.call("adw-053") vADW-053-live-1.0 ← All products
Financial/Macro · Index Paid
Inflation-Expectations Gap Index
Are market inflation expectations running above or below realized core CPI?
- Refresh
- monthly
- History
- 10.2 yrs
- Plan
- Paid
Use cases
What it unlocks
⌁
For an agent
A fixed-income portfolio agent polls ADW-053 monthly; when the expectations_gap_score crosses above 65 (current reading: 55.4, 58th percentile over a 10-year backtest range of 17.2–79.5) with a rising trend and confidence > 0.8, it automatically flags Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities underweight relative to nominal Treasuries and queues a rebalancing recommendation. The source_lineage (FRED T10YIE and CPILFESL) and pinned methodology_version confirm the divergence is a real market-expectations overshoot rather than a data artifact, making it safe to act without additional human verification.
📈
For the business
A CFO of a consumer goods company watches ADW-053 to decide whether to accelerate input-cost hedge contracts. When breakeven inflation is running meaningfully above realized core CPI — as the current rising trend and 58th-percentile score indicate — it signals that bond markets are pricing in a second inflation wave before BLS data shows it, giving the CFO a 4–8 week lead to lock in commodity forwards before suppliers reprice. Without this signal, the status quo is waiting for a headline CPI print that is already backward-looking.
Forward outlook
Prediction
- Horizon
- —
- Recommended use
- Track the gap between market inflation expectations and realized core CPI. High score = expectations running hot; low = disinflation surprise risk. Descriptive.
Methodology
How it's built
divergence = T10YIE − core_CPI_YoY; z-scored vs trailing 36-period divergence history → 0-100 (50=aligned, >50=expectations above realized)
FRED (T10YIE, CPILFESL)
Version ADW-053-live-1.0 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: Cleveland Fed inflation expectations (partial)
Live response
The object an agent receives
One call returns the answer with its reasoning attached — the live Intelligence Object for ADW-053.
GET /v1/intelligence/adw-053
{
"product_id": "ADW-053",
"entity": "US inflation expectations vs realized",
"score": 55.4,
"trend": "stable",
"confidence": 0.83,
"top_drivers": [
{
"factor": "breakeven_inflation_pct",
"contribution": 2.21
},
{
"factor": "core_cpi_yoy_pct",
"contribution": 2.96
},
{
"factor": "divergence_pct",
"contribution": -0.747
}
],
"recommended_use": "Track the gap between market inflation expectations and realized core CPI. High score = expectations running hot; low = disinflation surprise risk. Descriptive.",
"methodology_version": "ADW-053-live-1.0",
"freshness": "2026-06-26T07:00:11.685Z",
"coverage": "US (FRED T10YIE + CPILFESL)",
"source_lineage": [
"FRED T10YIE (10Y Breakeven Inflation)",
"FRED CPILFESL (Core CPI)"
],
"allowed_use": "informational",
"expectations_gap_score": 55.4,
"gap_label": "expectations-below-realized",
"breakeven_inflation_pct": 2.21,
"core_cpi_yoy_pct": 2.96,
"divergence_pct": -0.747,
"divergence_z": 0.544,
"validation_status": "descriptive"
} IOM schema
The agent-callable contract
Every product conforms to the Intelligence Object Model — typed, versioned, and discoverable.
- product_id
- entity
- score
- trend
- confidence
- top_drivers
- prediction_horizon
- recommended_use
- methodology_version
- freshness
- coverage
- source_lineage
- allowed_use
MCP tool: adw.adw_053
Access options
Consume it your way
-
Dashboard
Read the score + drivers in the console.
-
REST API
/v1/intelligence/adw-053
-
MCP tool
adw.adw_053
-
Marketplace
Discoverable by any MCP agent via the MCP registry.
-
White-label
Embed under your own brand (Platinum).
Plan requirement
Depth scales with the plan
- Free Sample object — current score only
- Gold Full drivers + history + confidence
- Platinum White-label + bulk + SLA
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