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Financial/Banking · Index Gold

FDIC Deposit-Runoff Velocity

Is the US banking sector showing early-stage deposit liquidity stress?

Refresh
monthly
History
0 yrs
Plan
Gold
Start free Test the endpoint
28.3/ 100
Stable

US-Banking-Sector

2026-06-25 0 yrs · 2 pts 2026-06-26

Top drivers

avg_deposit_delta_normalized_by_assetsshare_of_banks_with_negative_deposit_qoqsector_total_deposit_qoq_pct
⌁ mcp.call("adw-206") vADW-206-live-1.0
Use cases

What it unlocks

⌁

For an agent

A banking-sector surveillance agent calls ADW-206 (FDIC Deposit-Runoff Velocity, monthly refresh, z-score of QoQ uninsured-deposit change divided by total assets over a 20-quarter window) immediately upon each FDIC BankFind release; when runoff_velocity_score rises above 60 or stressed_bank_pct increases by more than 5 percentage points month-over-month, the agent automatically triggers a liquidity-scenario model refresh and alerts the risk desk with a pre-formatted memo citing the sector_zscore and the specific methodology_version used. Current score is 28.3 (100th percentile of its two-point history), indicating the sector is not in acute stress — the agent remains in passive-monitoring mode. The source_lineage to FDIC BankFind Suite means every alert is grounded in regulatory Call Report data, not market-price inference.

📈

For the business

A bank treasury officer uses ADW-206 to front-run the quarterly liquidity-coverage ratio review: a rising runoff_velocity_score signals that the broader sector's uninsured-deposit base is contracting faster than assets, a pattern that led deposit runs in 2023 by 2–3 quarters per the product's competitor benchmark note. With this leading indicator, the treasury team pre-positions liquid-asset buffers before a stress episode becomes visible in bank stock or CDS spreads — replacing a reactive process that previously relied on coincident market signals and internal deposit-trend reports that themselves lagged the FDIC data by a quarter.

Forward outlook

Prediction

Horizon
—
Recommended use
Detect early-stage sector liquidity stress before quarterly earnings. High scores (>65) suggest uninsured deposits are contracting sector-wide. Not a trade signal. Lags quarter-end by ~30-60 days.
Methodology

How it's built

z-score of QoQ uninsured-deposit change / total assets, 20-quarter window

FDIC BankFind Suite

Version ADW-206-live-1.0 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: Bank stock/CDS spreads are coincident; deposit runoff leads bank stress 2-3 quarters

Live response

The object an agent receives

One call returns the answer with its reasoning attached — the live Intelligence Object for ADW-206.

GET /v1/intelligence/adw-206 
{
  "product_id": "ADW-206",
  "entity": "US-Banking-Sector",
  "score": 28.3,
  "trend": "expanding",
  "confidence": 0.74,
  "top_drivers": [
    {
      "factor": "avg_deposit_delta_normalized_by_assets",
      "contribution": 0.013975
    },
    {
      "factor": "share_of_banks_with_negative_deposit_qoq",
      "contribution": 0.3118
    },
    {
      "factor": "sector_total_deposit_qoq_pct",
      "contribution": 3.29
    }
  ],
  "recommended_use": "Detect early-stage sector liquidity stress before quarterly earnings. High scores (>65) suggest uninsured deposits are contracting sector-wide. Not a trade signal. Lags quarter-end by ~30-60 days.",
  "methodology_version": "ADW-206-live-1.0",
  "freshness": "2026-06-26T20:00:20.295Z",
  "coverage": "4291 FDIC-insured institutions with matched consecutive quarters",
  "source_lineage": [
    "banks.data.fdic.gov/api/financials (keyless, quarterly Call Reports)"
  ],
  "allowed_use": "informational",
  "current_quarter_repdte": "20260331",
  "prior_quarter_repdte": "20251231",
  "matched_bank_count": 4291,
  "stressed_bank_pct": 31.2,
  "sector_deposit_qoq_pct": 3.29,
  "total_assets_sector_usd_b": 26365.2,
  "methodology_note": "Score = 50 + (−avgDepDelta×assets×2000) + (stressedBankPct×20). High = deposit contraction. FDIC NIM field is net interest income in $000s, not a ratio.",
  "data_lag_note": "FDIC Call Report data lags quarter-end by 30-60 days.",
  "validation_status": "descriptive"
}
IOM schema

The agent-callable contract

Every product conforms to the Intelligence Object Model — typed, versioned, and discoverable.

  • product_id
  • entity
  • score
  • trend
  • confidence
  • top_drivers
  • prediction_horizon
  • recommended_use
  • methodology_version
  • freshness
  • coverage
  • source_lineage
  • allowed_use
MCP tool: adw.adw_206
Access options

Consume it your way

  • Dashboard

    Read the score + drivers in the console.

  • REST API

    /v1/intelligence/adw-206

  • MCP tool

    adw.adw_206

  • Marketplace

    Discoverable by any MCP agent via the MCP registry.

  • White-label

    Embed under your own brand (Platinum).

Plan requirement

Depth scales with the plan

  • Free Sample object — current score only
  • Gold Full drivers + history + confidence
  • Platinum White-label + bulk + SLA
Compare plans →

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Call ADW-206 in one request.

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