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Financial/Banking · Index Gold

FDIC Deposit-Runoff Velocity

Is the US banking sector showing early-stage deposit liquidity stress?

Refresh
monthly
History
0 yrs
Plan
Gold
28.3/ 100
Stable

US-Banking-Sector

2026-06-25 0 yrs · 2 pts 2026-06-26

Top drivers

avg_deposit_delta_normalized_by_assetsshare_of_banks_with_negative_deposit_qoqsector_total_deposit_qoq_pct
⌁ mcp.call("adw-206") vADW-206-live-1.0
Use cases

What it unlocks

For an agent

A banking-sector surveillance agent calls ADW-206 (FDIC Deposit-Runoff Velocity, monthly refresh, z-score of QoQ uninsured-deposit change divided by total assets over a 20-quarter window) immediately upon each FDIC BankFind release; when runoff_velocity_score rises above 60 or stressed_bank_pct increases by more than 5 percentage points month-over-month, the agent automatically triggers a liquidity-scenario model refresh and alerts the risk desk with a pre-formatted memo citing the sector_zscore and the specific methodology_version used. Current score is 28.3 (100th percentile of its two-point history), indicating the sector is not in acute stress — the agent remains in passive-monitoring mode. The source_lineage to FDIC BankFind Suite means every alert is grounded in regulatory Call Report data, not market-price inference.

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For the business

A bank treasury officer uses ADW-206 to front-run the quarterly liquidity-coverage ratio review: a rising runoff_velocity_score signals that the broader sector's uninsured-deposit base is contracting faster than assets, a pattern that led deposit runs in 2023 by 2–3 quarters per the product's competitor benchmark note. With this leading indicator, the treasury team pre-positions liquid-asset buffers before a stress episode becomes visible in bank stock or CDS spreads — replacing a reactive process that previously relied on coincident market signals and internal deposit-trend reports that themselves lagged the FDIC data by a quarter.

Forward outlook

Prediction

Horizon
Recommended use
Detect early-stage sector liquidity stress before quarterly earnings. High scores (>65) suggest uninsured deposits are contracting sector-wide. Not a trade signal. Lags quarter-end by ~30-60 days.
Methodology

How it's built

z-score of QoQ uninsured-deposit change / total assets, 20-quarter window

FDIC BankFind Suite

Version ADW-206-live-1.0 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: Bank stock/CDS spreads are coincident; deposit runoff leads bank stress 2-3 quarters