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Financial/Macro · Index Gold

OFR Financial-Stress Persistence Score

Is current market stress a transient spike or a persistent regime shift?

Refresh
weekly
History
31.9 yrs
Plan
Gold
25.0/ 100
Stable

US-Financial-System

1994-07-22 31.9 yrs · 1,668 pts 2026-06-26

Top drivers

ofr_fsi_current_levelofr_fsi_20d_avgpersistence_ratio_20d_vs_current
⌁ mcp.call("adw-210") vADW-210-live-1.0
Use cases

What it unlocks

For an agent

A risk-management agent monitors ADW-210's persistence_score daily; the current score of 25.0 (low-stress, low-persistence regime) keeps the agent in a 'risk-on' posture, but a programmatic rule triggers a portfolio-wide hedge evaluation whenever persistence_score crosses 60 and the yield_slope field turns negative (inverted curve compounding stress duration). Unlike VIX — which is equity-implied volatility only — the OFR FSI spans five asset classes, so the agent's trigger is not fooled by equity calm during a credit or funding-market dislocation. The methodology_version stamps the exact 20-day persistence ratio formula and the FRED yield-curve proxy substitution logic, giving the quant desk an independently reproducible calculation for model-risk sign-off.

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For the business

A macro strategist at a fixed-income asset manager uses ADW-210 to distinguish between transient volatility spikes and genuine regime shifts before making duration calls. When the persistence_score stays below 35 for three consecutive weeks (as it currently reads at 25.0), the strategist maintains extended duration; a reading that climbs and holds above 55 — where the 20-day FSI average stays elevated and the curve is inverted — historically precedes credit-spread widening and prompts a tactical shift to shorter maturities. This replaces the manual process of averaging daily OFR FSI readings in a spreadsheet and cross-referencing the 2s10s spread, compressing a 30-minute morning routine into a single API pull.

Forward outlook

Prediction

Horizon
Recommended use
Detect whether financial stress is a transient spike or a sustained regime shift. Score >65 = persistent multi-asset stress; differentiate from single-asset VIX spikes.
Methodology

How it's built

FSI 20-day persistence ratio x inverted-curve weight (FRED proxy when OFR auth absent)

OFR Financial Stress IndexFRED yield-curve proxy

Version ADW-210-live-1.0 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: VIX is coincident & equity-only; OFR FSI spans 5 asset classes