US-Financial-System
Top drivers
⌁ mcp.call("adw-210") vADW-210-live-1.0 Is current market stress a transient spike or a persistent regime shift?
US-Financial-System
Top drivers
⌁ mcp.call("adw-210") vADW-210-live-1.0 A risk-management agent monitors ADW-210's persistence_score daily; the current score of 25.0 (low-stress, low-persistence regime) keeps the agent in a 'risk-on' posture, but a programmatic rule triggers a portfolio-wide hedge evaluation whenever persistence_score crosses 60 and the yield_slope field turns negative (inverted curve compounding stress duration). Unlike VIX — which is equity-implied volatility only — the OFR FSI spans five asset classes, so the agent's trigger is not fooled by equity calm during a credit or funding-market dislocation. The methodology_version stamps the exact 20-day persistence ratio formula and the FRED yield-curve proxy substitution logic, giving the quant desk an independently reproducible calculation for model-risk sign-off.
A macro strategist at a fixed-income asset manager uses ADW-210 to distinguish between transient volatility spikes and genuine regime shifts before making duration calls. When the persistence_score stays below 35 for three consecutive weeks (as it currently reads at 25.0), the strategist maintains extended duration; a reading that climbs and holds above 55 — where the 20-day FSI average stays elevated and the curve is inverted — historically precedes credit-spread widening and prompts a tactical shift to shorter maturities. This replaces the manual process of averaging daily OFR FSI readings in a spreadsheet and cross-referencing the 2s10s spread, compressing a 30-minute morning routine into a single API pull.
FSI 20-day persistence ratio x inverted-curve weight (FRED proxy when OFR auth absent)
Version ADW-210-live-1.0 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: VIX is coincident & equity-only; OFR FSI spans 5 asset classes
One call returns the answer with its reasoning attached — the live Intelligence Object for ADW-210.
{
"product_id": "ADW-210",
"entity": "US-Financial-System",
"score": 25,
"trend": "easing",
"confidence": 0.81,
"top_drivers": [
{
"factor": "ofr_fsi_current_level",
"contribution": -0.9568
},
{
"factor": "ofr_fsi_20d_avg",
"contribution": -0.5981
},
{
"factor": "persistence_ratio_20d_vs_current",
"contribution": 0.625
}
],
"recommended_use": "Detect whether financial stress is a transient spike or a sustained regime shift. Score >65 = persistent multi-asset stress; differentiate from single-asset VIX spikes.",
"methodology_version": "ADW-210-live-1.0",
"freshness": "2026-06-26T20:00:48.532Z",
"coverage": "OFR Financial Stress Index (5 asset classes) via FRED STLFSI4",
"source_lineage": [
"data.financialresearch.gov (OFR FSI source, auth required)",
"api.stlouisfed.org/fred STLFSI4 (mirror, key required)"
],
"allowed_use": "informational",
"ofr_fsi_current": -0.9568,
"ofr_fsi_20d_avg": -0.5981,
"persistence_ratio": 0.625,
"fsi_z_score_historical": -2,
"observation_count": 30,
"validation_status": "descriptive"
} Every product conforms to the Intelligence Object Model — typed, versioned, and discoverable.
Dashboard
Read the score + drivers in the console.
REST API
/v1/intelligence/adw-210
MCP tool
adw.adw_210
Marketplace
Discoverable by any MCP agent via the MCP registry.
White-label
Embed under your own brand (Platinum).
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