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OFR Financial-Stress Persistence Score

Is current market stress a transient spike or a persistent regime shift?

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weekly
History
31.9 yrs
Plan
Gold
25.0/ 100
Stable

US-Financial-System

1994-07-22 31.9 yrs · 1,668 pts 2026-06-26

Top drivers

ofr_fsi_current_levelofr_fsi_20d_avgpersistence_ratio_20d_vs_current
⌁ mcp.call("adw-210") vADW-210-live-1.0
Use cases

What it unlocks

For an agent

A risk-management agent monitors ADW-210's persistence_score daily; the current score of 25.0 (low-stress, low-persistence regime) keeps the agent in a 'risk-on' posture, but a programmatic rule triggers a portfolio-wide hedge evaluation whenever persistence_score crosses 60 and the yield_slope field turns negative (inverted curve compounding stress duration). Unlike VIX — which is equity-implied volatility only — the OFR FSI spans five asset classes, so the agent's trigger is not fooled by equity calm during a credit or funding-market dislocation. The methodology_version stamps the exact 20-day persistence ratio formula and the FRED yield-curve proxy substitution logic, giving the quant desk an independently reproducible calculation for model-risk sign-off.

📈

For the business

A macro strategist at a fixed-income asset manager uses ADW-210 to distinguish between transient volatility spikes and genuine regime shifts before making duration calls. When the persistence_score stays below 35 for three consecutive weeks (as it currently reads at 25.0), the strategist maintains extended duration; a reading that climbs and holds above 55 — where the 20-day FSI average stays elevated and the curve is inverted — historically precedes credit-spread widening and prompts a tactical shift to shorter maturities. This replaces the manual process of averaging daily OFR FSI readings in a spreadsheet and cross-referencing the 2s10s spread, compressing a 30-minute morning routine into a single API pull.

Forward outlook

Prediction

Horizon
Recommended use
Detect whether financial stress is a transient spike or a sustained regime shift. Score >65 = persistent multi-asset stress; differentiate from single-asset VIX spikes.
Methodology

How it's built

FSI 20-day persistence ratio x inverted-curve weight (FRED proxy when OFR auth absent)

OFR Financial Stress IndexFRED yield-curve proxy

Version ADW-210-live-1.0 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: VIX is coincident & equity-only; OFR FSI spans 5 asset classes

Live response

The object an agent receives

One call returns the answer with its reasoning attached — the live Intelligence Object for ADW-210.

GET /v1/intelligence/adw-210
{
  "product_id": "ADW-210",
  "entity": "US-Financial-System",
  "score": 25,
  "trend": "easing",
  "confidence": 0.81,
  "top_drivers": [
    {
      "factor": "ofr_fsi_current_level",
      "contribution": -0.9568
    },
    {
      "factor": "ofr_fsi_20d_avg",
      "contribution": -0.5981
    },
    {
      "factor": "persistence_ratio_20d_vs_current",
      "contribution": 0.625
    }
  ],
  "recommended_use": "Detect whether financial stress is a transient spike or a sustained regime shift. Score >65 = persistent multi-asset stress; differentiate from single-asset VIX spikes.",
  "methodology_version": "ADW-210-live-1.0",
  "freshness": "2026-06-26T20:00:48.532Z",
  "coverage": "OFR Financial Stress Index (5 asset classes) via FRED STLFSI4",
  "source_lineage": [
    "data.financialresearch.gov (OFR FSI source, auth required)",
    "api.stlouisfed.org/fred STLFSI4 (mirror, key required)"
  ],
  "allowed_use": "informational",
  "ofr_fsi_current": -0.9568,
  "ofr_fsi_20d_avg": -0.5981,
  "persistence_ratio": 0.625,
  "fsi_z_score_historical": -2,
  "observation_count": 30,
  "validation_status": "descriptive"
}
IOM schema

The agent-callable contract

Every product conforms to the Intelligence Object Model — typed, versioned, and discoverable.

  • product_id
  • entity
  • score
  • trend
  • confidence
  • top_drivers
  • prediction_horizon
  • recommended_use
  • methodology_version
  • freshness
  • coverage
  • source_lineage
  • allowed_use
MCP tool: adw.adw_210
Access options

Consume it your way

  • Dashboard

    Read the score + drivers in the console.

  • REST API

    /v1/intelligence/adw-210

  • MCP tool

    adw.adw_210

  • Marketplace

    Discoverable by any MCP agent via the MCP registry.

  • White-label

    Embed under your own brand (Platinum).

Plan requirement

Depth scales with the plan

  • Free Sample object — current score only
  • Gold Full drivers + history + confidence
  • Platinum White-label + bulk + SLA
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Call ADW-210 in one request.