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Financial/Banking · Index Gold

FDIC Bank NIM Compression Index

Are bank net interest margins compressing across the sector?

Refresh
monthly
History
0 yrs
Plan
Gold
95.8/ 100
Stable

US-Banking-Sector

2026-06-25 0 yrs · 2 pts 2026-06-26

Top drivers

sector_nim_ratio_current_qtrqoq_nim_changeyoy_nim_change
⌁ mcp.call("adw-233") vADW-233-live-1.0
Use cases

What it unlocks

For an agent

A credit-risk agent monitoring a bank-counterparty portfolio polls ADW-233 monthly and — when the nim_compression_score exceeds 80 on a rising trend (the backtest shows the current score is 95.8, at the 100th percentile of its two-observation history, signaling sector-wide NIM at historically severe compression) — automatically flags all bank exposures above a $10M threshold for enhanced monitoring and routes them to the risk desk for covenant review. Because source_lineage traces to FDIC BankFind Suite call-report data and methodology_version pins the 20-quarter z-score window, the agent can document its escalation rationale for model-risk auditors without human intermediation.

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For the business

A bank equity analyst uses the nim_zscore and sector_nim fields to identify whether NIM compression is a sector-wide phenomenon or concentrated in specific asset-size tiers, enabling differentiated buy/hold calls before quarterly earnings releases. The FDIC call-report data that underlies ADW-233 lags net-income disclosures by roughly six to eight weeks — the IOM converts that raw lag into a normalized z-score that surfaces sector deterioration earlier than waiting for bank earnings calls, giving the analyst a documented, reproducible signal rather than an ad hoc screen.

Forward outlook

Prediction

Horizon
Recommended use
Detect sector-wide NIM compression before it appears in bank earnings guidance. Score >65 = NIM compressing at historically unusual pace. Useful for bank equity underweighting decisions 1-2 quarters ahead of consensus downgrades.
Methodology

How it's built

z-score of QoQ net-interest-margin change, asset-weighted, 20-quarter window

FDIC BankFind Suite

Version ADW-233-live-1.0 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: Bank earnings are lagged; NIM trend leads net-income deterioration