EU Fiscal Sustainability Gap Score →

{
  "product_id": "ADW-349",
  "entity": "EU-EA20",
  "score": 47.1,
  "trend": "stable",
  "confidence": 0.82,
  "top_drivers": [
    {
      "factor": "debt_pct_gdp",
      "contribution": 87.8
    },
    {
      "factor": "deficit_pct_gdp",
      "contribution": -2.9
    },
    {
      "factor": "debt_component_score",
      "contribution": 46.33
    },
    {
      "factor": "deficit_component_score",
      "contribution": 48.33
    },
    {
      "factor": "debt_3yr_change_pp",
      "contribution": -1.5
    }
  ],
  "recommended_use": "Track Euro Area fiscal sustainability trajectory for sovereign credit analysis, macro-regime detection, and EU policy risk assessment. Higher score = worse fiscal sustainability (larger sustainability gap). Anchored to Maastricht Treaty thresholds. Descriptive index only — not a trade signal.",
  "methodology_version": "ADW-349-live-1.0",
  "freshness": "2026-06-27T04:00:11.539Z",
  "coverage": "Euro Area – 20 countries (EA20), general government sector (ESA 2010 S13), annual frequency. Published by Eurostat via EDP notification.",
  "source_lineage": [
    "Eurostat gov_10dd_edpt1 na_item=GD sector=S13 unit=PC_GDP geo=EA20 (General government consolidated gross debt, keyless)",
    "Eurostat gov_10dd_edpt1 na_item=B9 sector=S13 unit=PC_GDP geo=EA20 (Net lending/borrowing, keyless)"
  ],
  "allowed_use": "informational",
  "validation_status": "descriptive",
  "half_life": "P3M",
  "next_fresh_at": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z",
  "reference_year": "2025",
  "debt_pct_gdp": 87.8,
  "deficit_pct_gdp": -2.9,
  "debt_component_score": 46.33,
  "deficit_component_score": 48.33,
  "sustainability_band": "elevated",
  "debt_breach_maastricht_60pct": true,
  "deficit_breach_maastricht_3pct": false,
  "debt_3yr_change_pp": -1.5,
  "debt_1yr_change_pp": 0.8,
  "normalization_anchors": {
    "debt_threshold_pct": 60,
    "debt_stress_pct": 120,
    "deficit_stress_pct": 6,
    "calibration_note": "60% debt = Maastricht treaty threshold (score 0 for debt component); 120% debt = double threshold / severe stress (score 100). 3% deficit = Maastricht limit; 6% = double limit (score 100 for deficit component). Composite: 60% debt stock + 40% flow deficit."
  },
  "data_lag_note": "Eurostat EDP data publishes ~4-6 months after year-end (spring notification ~April, autumn notification ~October). Score reflects latest published annual vintage.",
  "eurostat_updated": "2026-04-22T11:00:00+0200",
  "dataset": "gov_10dd_edpt1"
}