US Natural-Hazard Risk Index

Forward outlook

Prediction

Horizon: 10 years
Recommended use: Portfolio risk segmentation

Methodology

How it's built

EAL = Exposure × Annualized Frequency × Historic Loss Ratio; normalize to national percentile; drivers = top hazards by EAL

OpenFEMA National Risk Index

Version v4.2.1 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: Verisk (proprietary underwriting); CoreLogic

Sample response

The object an agent receives

One call returns the answer with its reasoning attached. This is the live sample from build/samples/ADW-011.json.

GET /v1/intelligence/adw-011

{
  "product_id": "ADW-011",
  "entity": "Harris County, TX",
  "score": 78,
  "trend": "increasing",
  "confidence": 0.92,
  "top_drivers": [
    {
      "factor": "Hurricane wind exposure",
      "contribution": 0.45
    },
    {
      "factor": "Coastal flooding depth",
      "contribution": 0.3
    },
    {
      "factor": "Urban heat island effect",
      "contribution": 0.15
    }
  ],
  "prediction_horizon": "10 years",
  "recommended_use": "Portfolio risk segmentation",
  "methodology_version": "v4.2.1",
  "freshness": "2026-01-15T06:00:00Z",
  "coverage": "Harris County, TX",
  "hazard_risk_score": 78,
  "national_percentile": 89,
  "top_hazard_drivers": [
    "Hurricane",
    "Storm Surge",
    "Flash Flood"
  ],
  "expected_annual_loss_usd": 1250000000,
  "social_vulnerability": 0.68,
  "resilience": 0.55,
  "source_lineage": [
    "OpenFEMA National Risk Index"
  ],
  "allowed_use": "evaluation, commercial"
}

IOM schema