Catastrophe Loss Simulation

Forward outlook

Prediction

Horizon: 100 years
Recommended use: Catastrophe bond pricing

Methodology

How it's built

Oasis Monte Carlo → AAL + OEP/AEP curves

Oasis LMF (self-hosted)FEMA NRI

Version v5.0.3 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: Verisk (AIR/Touchstone), Moody's RMS (enterprise)

Sample response

The object an agent receives

One call returns the answer with its reasoning attached. This is the live sample from build/samples/ADW-013.json.

GET /v1/intelligence/adw-013

{
  "product_id": "ADW-013",
  "entity": "FL coastal portfolio / hurricane",
  "score": 82,
  "trend": "volatile",
  "confidence": 0.88,
  "top_drivers": [
    {
      "factor": "Wind speed distribution",
      "contribution": 0.5
    },
    {
      "factor": "Storm surge inundation",
      "contribution": 0.35
    }
  ],
  "prediction_horizon": "100 years",
  "recommended_use": "Catastrophe bond pricing",
  "methodology_version": "v5.0.3",
  "freshness": "2026-06-15T06:00:00Z",
  "coverage": "FL Coastal Zone",
  "average_annual_loss": 45000000,
  "oep_100yr": 180000000,
  "aep_100yr": 0.01,
  "return_period_losses": {
    "10yr": 25000000,
    "50yr": 95000000,
    "100yr": 180000000,
    "250yr": 320000000
  },
  "confidence_interval": [
    38000000,
    52000000
  ],
  "source_lineage": [
    "Oasis LMF (self-hosted)",
    "FEMA NRI"
  ],
  "allowed_use": "evaluation, commercial"
}

IOM schema